The Impact Analysis Of Economic Growth To The Rate Of Traffic Fatalities In China

The rapid economic growth has promoted the fast development of the transportation industry,but at the same time it has brought serious road traffic safety problems,and every life lost in the traffic accident is an avoidable tragedy.In order to avoid more innocent lives died in traffic accidents,ensure the safety of personal property and achieve sustainable economic development,it's necessary to make a systematic study on the relationship between economic growth and the rate of traffic fatalities.This paper analyzes the relationship of current situation of economic growth and the number of traffic fatalities in China,and finds that the number of traffic fatalities has tended to decline in the course of economic growth,which is in accordance with the statistical laws of most industrialized countries.However,different countries have different economic,political and social cultural environments.The previous explanation is not necessarily in line with China's national conditions,and most of the previous studies are based on rational analysis,and few have been systematically explained using economic models.Thus,the paper from the macro and micro levels,apply cost-benefit method and the lemon market theory to comprehensive analysis of this.At the macro level,the main effecting factor of the traffic fatalities is the average driving speed.With economic development,the marginal cost and the marginal revenue of the driving speed is changing,and change the average equilibrium driving speed and then affect the number of traffic fatalities.The impact of sustained growth,traffic accident mortality finally tends to fall.At the micro level,the lemon market theory is used to analyze the traffic risk changes in the passenger car market.With the economic growth,the number of fatalities in traffic shows an inverted U-shaped curve during the dynamic changes of lemon and non-lemon.Based on the analysis of theoretical mechanism,using the provincial panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 1997 to 2014,the spline function regression model was constructed,and the non-linear relationship between economic growth and traffic accident mortality was verified from the national and regional levels.Finally,the stability of the spline function regression model is verified by the robustness analysis.The empirical results show that:without considering other factors,the results of national and regional studies show that there is a significant inverse U-shaped relationship between economic growth and traffic accident mortality in China.After adding other factors,only the national and the eastern region of the economic growth and traffic accident mortality between the inverted U-shaped relationship between the central and western regions because of relatively slow economic growth,economic growth,the impact of mortality is still in traffic accidents Promote the stage,and therefore need to balance the regional economic growth rate in order to promote the Midwest traffic accident mortality inflection point value of the arrival of early.