| The residents travel activities which are affected by schedule and leisure time,will lead to high travel rate and additional revenue beyond the working day in weekends and holidays,this is what we called Weekend Effect and Holiday Effect in tourism.This phenomenon is normal at residents travel behavior and tourism,which has a role of limiting to reception and reasonable allocation of tourism services.To analyze and measure Weekend and Holiday effect in tourism will be good to service management.Scenic spots of high A-level is quality in tourism,to analyze its Weekend and Holiday Effect and grasp its internal feature has representative of significance for all scenic spots.Based on the analysis of stock market fluctuations and variation of tourists,this paper introduced the concept of Weekend and Holiday effect from stock fluctuations to tourism and chose two high A-level scenic spots named Huashan and Wulingyuan as a case.According to local market theory,"Peak-Forest" structure of tourist volume,time series model and the method of mathematical statistics,we have gathered daily data of tourists from 2011 to 2015,and the Weekend and Holiday Effect of tourism was determined quantitatively.The causes and laws of the Weekend effect were compared and summarized preliminarily.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The results of Weekend and Holiday Effect of Huashan indicated that:Saturday effect is in 10%-100%,Sunday effect is in 0-70%,Saturday is higher than Sunday.The Weekend Effect shows a seasonal difference,effect of shoulder season is in 15%-100%,off season is in 15%-85%,peak season is in 0-30%,shoulder season is higher than off season,off season is higher than peak season.The frequency distribution and normal test of 86 Weekend Effect has found that the off season is in normal distribution,the other two are left-skewed distribution.The rank of five 3-day Holiday Effect is New Year's Day,May Day,Tomb-sweeping Day,Dragon Boat Festival and Mid Autumn Festival,the average is 12.18,2.19,1.94,0.90 and 0.69,effect of Dragon Boat and Mid Autumn Festival is lowest;The two golden week Holiday Effect is 5.26 and 2.58 respectively.The Spring Festival effect is higher than that of National Day.(2)The results of Weekend and Holiday Effect of Wulingyuan indicated that:Saturday effect is in 10%-70%,Sunday effect is in 0-50%,Saturday is higher than Sunday.The Weekend Effect shows a seasonal difference,effect of off season is in 20%-80%,shoulder season is in 10%-45%,peak season is in 0-30%,off season is higher than shoulder season,shoulder season is higher than peak season.The frequency distribution and normal test of 89 Weekend Effect has found that the off season is in normal distribution,the other two are left-skewed distribution.The rank of five 3-day Holiday Effect is May Day,Tomb-sweeping Day,Dragon Boat Festival New Year's Day and Mid Autumn Festival,the average is 2.35,2.24,0.54,0.44 and 0.12,effect of May Day and Tomb-sweeping Day is highest;The two golden week Holiday Effect is 3.66 and 1.45 respectively.Spring Festival effect is higher than that of National Day.(3)A comprehensive analysis of relevant literature showed that:Institutional arrangements for holidays,the change of consumer attitudes,self driving travel and construction of "2 hours circle of tourism" are the real cause of tourism.Compared Weekend Effect of Huashan and Wulingyuan,this paper found that the higher the level of scenic spots,the lower the Weekend Effect,there is a negative relationship between them.Local market is the main reason for the formation of Weekend Effect,the higher the proportion of local market,the higher value of Weekend effect.Holiday Effect is mainly affected by nature,lasting days and the influence of season.Holiday Effect of May Day which belongs to Gregorian calendar is the highest;Holiday Effect of Dragon Boat and Mid Autumn Day which belong to lunar calendar is the lowest.There formed a "narrow peak" structure at 3-day holiday and a "wide peak" structure at golden week which shows an obvious effect of preganglionic and postganglionic.There are two innovations in this paper:First,the determination model of tourism Weekend/Holiday Effect which is premised on stable seasonal has been built based on the comparison of stock market fluctuations and variation of tourists,it has provided a new idea for the determination of tourism Weekend and Holiday Effect.Second,we chose two high A-level scenic spots named Huashan and Wulingyuan as a case and gathered daily data of tourists from 2011 to 2015.There Weekend and Holiday Effect was determined quantitatively.The causes and laws of Weekend Effect have been analyzed.This paper has provided a reference for the management of scenic spots and tourist reception services. |
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