Study On Bulk Cargo Owner Chartering Decision Making Based On System Dynamics

With economic development,the shipping market economy has gradually become an important supporting industry for the national economy.As an important part of the shipping market,the international dry bulk shipping market has also been rapidly developed.In the meantime,given the rebalancing of the global economy and the slowdown of economic growth in recent years,the bulk cargo owners will face a series of problems for a long time in the future,including overcapacity,lack of demand,fierce competition in the industry,High cost,instability of capital flow and so on.On the other hand,the imbalance in supply and demand of transport capacity,the rapid expansion of capacity and the slow growth in demand for freight transport have caused the international and domestic shipping markets to fluctuate at historically low levels.Shipping companies have been making every effort to make ends meet.Although the dry bulk market has entered a period of recovery,it still faces a severe competitive environment.How to make a reasonable decision to charter a ship in the complicated international dry bulk shipping market has become an important challenge now facing the shipowner enterprises.This article takes the shipbuilding decision-making problem of the international dry bulk shipping market as the research object.Firstly,it expounds the related theories and methods of system dynamics,domestic and international shipping market,dry bulk market and charter.Then on the basis of analyzing the supply and demand relationship of the international dry bulk shipping market,the paper analyzes the relationship between the various elements of the international dry bulk shipping market,determines the causal relationship of the system,and builds the system dynamics model of the international dry bulk shipping market.Finally,based on the system dynamics model,this paper simulates the influence of different shipbuilding enterprises’decision-making on the international dry bulk market.At last,through the analysis of the results,it provides some guidance to the shipowner’s reasonable charter.