Research On The System Dynamics Model Of The International Dry Bulk Shipping Market

With the further development of economic integration and the globalization of trade, as the link between national economic and trade exchanges shipping is more and more important. Besides the internal factors of supply and demand the development of international shipping market is also under the influence of some external factors such as the global economic situation, the political landscape and financial environment. Compared with the container transport dry bulk shipping market can be seen as a completely competitive market. Its’ price level is determined by supply and demand. Among them, the demand is derived from dry bulk trade the dry bulk shipping is derived by the international dry bulk trade demand, and the supply is subject to the influence of financing amount and the price of the new-building vessel. Freight rate can affect financing decisions of the owners, then affect the market supply capacity. Due to a lot affecting factors of the international dry bulk shipping market and their complex relationships, we can better grasp the law of development of the market by studying the characteristics of structure and its change, then to modify their operating strategy.Based on the above analysis, we can find that the influence of dry bulk shipping market is very complex, it contains the demand, supply, and freight rate. So this paper abandons the previous econometric methods, and puts forward of the system dynamics method in the research. Then it gives full play to the advantages of system dynamics in the study of complex nonlinear systems, and sets up the system dynamics model of the international dry bulk shipping market.Firstly it introduces the theory of dry shipping market and system dynamics method; secondly analyzes the dry bulk shipping market, including the current supply,demand, price and its influencing factors, then establish theoretical basis for the construction of a system dynamics model in this paper; Again according to the market analysis, determines the system boundary of dry bulk shipping market, which consider the financial impact, determines the interaction relationship between system variables, constructs the causal feedback loops, and sets up the system dynamics model; Finally, the model test and simulation, through the single simulation of economy, shipping, finance policies, and combined policy simulation, gives Suggestions for the development of the dry bulk shipping market.