Study On Spatial Agglomeration Measure And Influencing Factors Of Trade Circulation Industry In Yangtze River

The trade circulation in the Yangtze River Delta is not only one of the components of the national "One Belt and One Road" strategy but also one of the major driving forces in the "One Belt and One Road" strategy.As a bridge and link of connecting production and consumption,it has played an important role in monitoring the national economic performance.So it is particularly important to research on commerce and trade circulation industry in the Yangtze River Delta and provide suitable advice for the development of commerce and trade circulation industry in the Yangtze River Delta.This paper summarizes the development process of industrial agglomeration,the characteristics of industrial agglomeration,the theory of superiority and the theoretical method of measuring industrial agglomeration.Next,this article collected panel data of 26 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2005 to 2015.Based on complementing and cleaning up the data,this article described the business circulation industry in the Yangtze River Delta region and found that the trade circulation industry in the Yangtze River Delta has a big difference in different arears.The development level of commerce circulation industry in Jiangsu Province is significantly higher than that in Zhejiang Province and Anhui Province.Further using the CR index,location entropy and HHI index to measure the spatial agglomeration effect of trade circulation industry in Yangtze River Delta,the results show that:the agglomeration degree of commerce and trade circulation industry in Yangtze River Delta first rising and then decreasing,the trend like a inverted U Type,before 2010,it showed a concentrated aggregation effect,and then showed a discrete trend of aggregation after a few years.Based on the analysis of the global spatial correlation,it is found that there is spatial correlation between the trade circulation industry in the Yangtze River Delta and it is a positive spatial agglomeration effect.Subsequently,the results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that cities in southern and northern of Jiangsu such as Shaoxing and Suzhou showed "high-high" clustering effects,while some cities in Anhui showed significant "low-low" spatial clustering effects.This shows that spatial agglomeration effect between different regions are significantly different.Based on this,we further make use of spatial Gini coefficient,standard deviation ellipse method to measure the agglomeration degree of commerce and trade circulation industry,and compare the advantages,disadvantages and characteristics of various methods.The results show that:the trend of spatial aggregation of commerce and trade circulation industry also likes an inverted U-shape,the agglomeration of the industry changes from centralized to discrete,indicating that the commerce and trade circulation industry in Yangtze River Delta is expanding continuously from the agglomeration center.In addition,As for the change of the situation,first shift to the northeast and then shift to the southwest down,but the overall shift to the north,indicating that the development of commerce and trade circulation industry in Jiangsu Province is superior to the development of Zhejiang Province.The features of the gathering of commercial circulation in the Yangtze River Delta gradually weakened and showed a trend of coordinated development.In order to further guide the development of commerce and trade circulation industry in the Yangtze River Delta,the paper firstly studies the factors that affect the development and accumulation of commercial circulation industry in the Yangtze River Delta by using the traditional panel model.Considering of the spatial correlation,we further establish the spatial panel model for empirical analysis.By using LM test,Robust LM test and Hausman test,this paper finally chose the spatial hysteresis model with space fixed effect for estimation.According to the gross value of commercial circulation industry,the cities in the Yangtze River Delta are divided into three groups,and then further analyze the impact of various factors on the commercial circulation industries in different groups of cities,finally draw the following conclusions:the conclusions drawn from the spatial panels and the traditional panels are roughly Similar,but considering the influence of surrounding cities,the space panel thinks that the development of commercial circulation industry in the surrounding cities has a significant effect on the city.Each variable's effect on different scales of cities are different.Among all the explanatory variables,the effect of industrial structure on cities of different sizes is similar,and the promotion of specialization level is positively correlated with the city size.Among the control variables,the promotion effect of urbanization level is negatively correlated with the cities' scale.In addition,commercial investment has the strongest promotion effect on the medium-sized cities,while the labor force has the strongest promotion effect on the small-scale urban commerce and trade industry.Finally,based on the results of empirical analysis,the following suggestions are proposed:(1)The Yangtze River Delta needs to make rational use of the industrial agglomeration effect.(2)Strengthen the connection among cities of different scales and encourage communication among enterprises.(3)To strengthen the urbanization of smaller cities,improve the circulation industry system,and develop the industrial scale.(4)Optimize the industrial structure of larger cities and improve the efficiency of industrial development.