The Study On Spatial Spillover Effect Of Regional Circulation Industry

Circulation industry is an important part of national economy.It bears the functions of production and consumption.It plays a significant role on the improvement of urbanization level,the transformation of industrial structure,increasing employment and so on.Under the background that production factors circulate allodially and the connection between the regional circulation industrys is close,from the aspects of relevance and heterogeneity,measuring spatial spillover effects of circulation can promote the coordinated development of circulation industry and the transformation of economy.The article starts from three aspects:(1)On the base of the geographical distance and economic distance nested spatial weight,it selects the panel data(2005-2015)of 31 provinces and GeoDa software to analyze the spatial correlation of regional circulation industry.(2)Constructing the space Spatial Dubin model to further study the spatial correlation of the circulation industry.The article analyzes the existence of spatial spillover effect.And the influence factors are decomposed from three aspects:total effect,direct effect and indirect effect.(3)After chosing weight function and bandwidth selection,the spatial heterogeneity of each influencing factor is explored by using the geography weighted regression model(GWR model).Through the empirical research results,this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)The global Moran's I index in 2005 and 2015 is significantly positive,indicating that the regional circulation industry has a significant spatial positive correlation.The distribution of the circulation industry is obvious in the east and west regions,and the eastern region and the northeastern region show a high degree of agglomeration.The central and western regions show low clustering phenomena.(2)The results of the space Durbin model show that the circulation industry has a positive spatial spillover effect.Ope,Flx and Gov have a significant positive impact on the surrounding areas.However,Urb,Thi and Des have a significant negative impact on the surrounding areas.(3)The results of GWR model show that Urb has an impact on the development level of the circulation industry in each region,but the degree of influence is different.The control variables such as Ope only affect the development level of circulation industry in some areas.Based on the findings,the following recommendations are made:(1)promote the development of urbanization process from the reform of household registration system;(2)strengthen international cooperation and expand the opening up of the circulation industry;(3)optimize the industrial structure of the circulation industry,increase human capital investment;(4)support government intervention according to local conditions.