A Risk Assessment Study Of Direct Investment By Chinese Companies In Southeast Asian Countries

With gradual increase of direct investment abroad from China,risk rating aimed at country is more and more concerned by the country and the international firm.But present rating field of the world is monopolized by three rating agencies which are Moody,S&P and Fitch.China and even the developing countries haven’t built up completely their own rating systems.In the field of risk rating,our country has many departments and institutes to do corresponding study,also achieved some achievement.But there is still no influence power and right of speech in the world.The rating system built by three large rating institutes mainly services political groups.For the risk investment aimed at large transnational enterprises,the rating system hasn’t obvious significance.Regarding enterprise as visual angle,this article divided enterprise into 7 different industries based on industrial standard,then selected the southeast Asian country as studied object,finally built up a set of rating system and grating result which can guide our transnational enterprises to risk-invest in southeast Asian countries.The rating system has two main components.;one is the selection of risk index and construction of risk system.Based on the original version of rating system of three large rating institutes;the auxiliary of rating system of our country’s rating institute;support of economy,culture of Southeast Asian countries,this article built up risk rating index system which meets national conditions of Southeast Asian countries and applies to our large transnational enterprises.The other is weighting of every risk index.For every rating institute or rating system,weighting of risk index is the soul of the whole risk rating.Even though selecting the same method,finally weighting the corresponding index different weights also can lead to different results completely.In this article,when weighting risk index,literature review method and field survey method should be done to make sure the final index and corresponding weight.After making sure index system and weight of index system,anotherindispensable factor is evaluation of risk.The mathematical model---ARIMA model can give a prediction and assessment of quantitative risk index,and then give a risk evaluation by quantitative grading method secondarily.Finally combination of two can make the final risk grating table.According to the rating table,our transnational enterprises will have a risk reference standard which is objective and quantified.