The Leaping Path Of "Middle-income Trap" And Its Enlightenment To China's Economic Development

Historically,many developing countries,after entering the middle-income stage,have been unable to break through for a long time at middle-income level and are thought to have fallen into the "middle-income trap".Only Japan,South Korea and Singapore successfully broke through the "middle-income trap".However,a large number of Latin American countries and Southeast Asian countries fell into the "middle-income trap" due to the lack of motivation for economic growth and have so far failed to become high-income countries.The core issue of breaking the"middle income trap" is economic growth momentum.China's economic development achieved remarkable success 30 years after its reform and opening up and has now entered the upper middle-income countries.However,with the economic development,problems such as the disappearance of demographic dividend,overcapacity,lack of innovation and environmental pollution have also emerged,affecting the sustainable growth of China's economy.In order to prevent China from falling into the "middle-income trap",we should analyze the economic growth factors that cross the "middle-income trap" in light of the successful experiences and failures of economic development in other countries and study the current economic development and countermeasures in China in light of China's national conditions,receive enlightenment of China's economic development and make targeted recommendations.This article first summarizes the reasons for the failure of countries caught in the "middle-income trap" and the successful experiences of countries that have leapt the "middle-income trap".The reasons for the failure are diversified.Latin American countries such as Argentina and Brazil are mainly due to the lack of a stable political and social environment,the failure to take the correct industrialization path and the failure to solve a great deal of social conflicts.The Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia and Thailand are mainly the government's macroeconomic policy mistakes and the financial crisis caused by the imperfect financial system.All the countries caught in the "middle-income trap"have failed to industrialize.Japan and South Korea are both led by the government to adopt appropriate policies to guide their industrial upgrading.They have always attached great importance to human capital development and innovation,and successfully walked out of their respective industrialization paths and achieved economic growth ending up with becoming high-income countries.Then,the panel model regression analysis of the impact of economic growth factors on the growth rate of per capita GDP,the selected economic growth factors are capital formation,consumption level,urbanization,industrial structure,technological progress,the level of opening up,population dependency ratio,labor unemployment rate,economic freedom and free of corruption.Respectively,using fixed-effect model,differential GMM model and system GMM model for regression parameter estimation.The regression results from the comparison into sample countries caught in 'middle-income trap"("trap group" countries)and sample countries leapt 'middle-income trap"("leap group”countries)draw the following conclusions:between "trap group" countries and "leap group" countries there is a clear gap industrialization,urbanization,science and technology,a huge gap in the level of economic freedom and free of corruption;"trapped group"countries should pay more attention to the accumulation of total capital formation,meanwhile,it is an important task to vigorously raise the level of industrialization;"Trap Group" countries,although relatively low in urbanization,cannot blindly pursue urbanization,and should proceed with the urbanization in light of its own national conditions and economic development level.;"Trap Group" countries should step up technological accumulation and Technological innovation;"Trap Group" countries need to improve economic freedom;"Trap Group" countries should improve the legal system and strengthen supervision to fight corruption and enhance economic cleanliness.Finally,starting from China's actual national conditions,combined with the conclusions reached in the previous sections,analyzes China's economic status quo and the countermeasures taken.Analyzed the factors of economic growth such as total capital formation and industrialization,demographic dividend and urbanization,natural resources utilization and environmental protection,policy system and economic strategy in China,and corresponding countermeasures adopted by the government,we find China's current economic development strategy is appropriate.In particular,the "RMB internationalization" strategy and the "Belt and Road Initiative" plan will provide a powerful boost to China's sustained economic growth.China is on the path of economic development that suits its own economic development level and its own national conditions.China's economy will continue to grow and will not fall into the vicious circle of "middle-income trap".At the same time,in light of China's national conditions,it has the following suggestions on the current economic development in China:(1)Adhere to the government-led coordinated industrialization and urbanization strategy.Adhere to the government-led industrialization path from the bottom up,from rural areas to cities,from light industry to heavy industry,and from labor-intensive industries to technology-intensive industries.At the same time,through the government's policy guidance,achieve the coordinated development of industrialization and urbanization,pay attention to the level of urbanization and industrialization level to adapt to the implementation of a new type of urbanization.(2)Implement the innovation-driven strategy and build an innovative country.Adhere to the path of independent innovation with Chinese characteristics,seize the opportunities of the revolution in new science and technology,enhance the capability of independent innovation,build an innovative national system,stimulate the development of science and technology through innovation,and drive economic growth.Pay attention to the cultivation of innovative talents,build innovative technical personnel and manage qualified personnel.At the same time,through opening to the outside world and strengthening international cooperation,we should integrate into the global innovation network and enhance the level of innovation and cooperation among Chinese enterprises.(3)Improve resource utilization efficiency and protect the ecological environment.To develop a green economy,we must increase the efficiency of the use of natural resources through technological innovation and management reform,and take the road of sustainable resource utilization so as to ease the pressure on resources in China and meanwhile protect the natural environment.At the same time,we must vigorously govern environmental pollution,develop a green economy,mitigate pollution by overcoming production processes,and gradually improve the energy structure in China to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction.We should enhance environmental awareness among all citizens through proactive education and policy support Improve the system of ecological environment protection and implement a strict environmental pollution monitoring mechanism to form an environmental protection system that the government,enterprises and the public jointly supervise and govern,and implement the disclosure of environmental pollution information,joint supervision and active management.