Xinjiang Based On Semi-parametric Model Empirical Analysis And Prediction Of Power Generation

With the rapid development of Xinjiang's economy,the power supply in Xinjiang has been increasing rapidly year by year.Meanwhile,energy is becoming an important bottleneck restricting the development of our country,and Xinjiang is a power supply structure based on coal and water resources.Therefore,the effective prediction of Xinjiang power generation can provide a reference for economic operation and decision-making.At present,the country is in the early stage of smart grid planning and construction,which makes it more important to accurately forecast power generation in Xinjiang.By selecting 2000-2014 years of Xinjiang power generation,gross domestic product of Xinjiang,total investment in social fixed assets,total retail sales of social consumer goods,total import and export and per capita disposable income of urban residents and other related indexes and data,on the basis of parameter regression and non parametric regression theory,the correction based on residual analysis is used.The semi parametric regression model is used to analyze and predict the power generation in Xinjiang for 20152016 years.The comparison between the results and the real value shows that the simulation results are good.On this basis,the power generation capacity of 20172018 years in Xinjiang is predicted,which can be used as the national power grid.The overall planning can provide scientific basis and reference value for the regional economic development of Xinjiang and the relevant decisions of government departments.