The Impact Of Export Trade On China's Capacity Utilization Rate

The problem of overcapacity has been a stubborn problem that restricts the development of China's industry.Since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008,it has caused great impact on the export of our foreign trade.As China has entered the new normal state of the economy,it has changed the past way of excessive reliance on investment and extensive economic development.With the large decline in international market demand,many industrial enterprises have reduced export orders,increased inventory,overcapacity problems have become prominent,and some industries highly dependent on international markets are facing the whole.The loss,collapse and overcapacity of the industry seriously restrict the healthy development of China's economy and society.From the point of view,the overcapacity is not only caused by market failure or institutional mechanism,and the cyclical economic fluctuation is an important cause of the overcapacity.After 2002,the proportion of China's export trade increased continuously.The proportion of exports to GDP in 2002 was 22.1%,to 34.6% in 2007,732 million 960 thousand yuan in 2007 in China,936 million 270 thousand in export and 203 million 300 thousand in trade surplus in 2007.After the 2008 economic crisis,China's export trade had a turning point.In 2009,China's trade deficit was 134 million 110 thousand,the proportion of exports declined,only 20.5% in 2015,and the export even became the short leg of China's economic growth,and the recession of the export market had directly promoted the intensification of overcapacity.From the perspective of production capacity,the capacity utilization ratio of 30 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government has been estimated by using the data envelopment analysis model.According to the international standard,the productivity utilization ratio is below 80%,that is,the capacity surplus appears.The calculation results show that the productivity of most provinces in China is less than 80%.From the national level,there is a serious overcapacity in China.From the point of view of regional differences,the productivity utilization rate of our country has obvious decreasing trend in eastern and western regions.The productivity utilization rate of eastern coastal provinces,such as Guangdong,Shanghai and Jiangsu,is higher than 85%,and the productivity utilization rate is low in the central and western regions.The productivity utilization rate of the central provinces is mainly concentrated in the 60%-80%,most of the West.The capacity utilization rate of the Ministry is less than 60%,and the problem ofovercapacity is prominent.Starting with the impact mechanism of export trade on productivity utilization,introducing the proportion of export as an explanatory variable,the proportion of investment in scientific research,the degree of government intervention,the proportion of capital and the four indexes of ownership structure as the control variables,the corresponding measurement model is constructed to carry out an empirical test.The empirical results of the fixed effect model show that the proportion of export trade has a significant positive effect on the productivity utilization,the level of science and technology and the proportion of capital have positive positive impact on the productivity utilization,and the government behavior will reduce the productivity utilization rate;the empirical test of the East and West regions shows that the surplus capacity deposit is resolved through export trade.In the obvious regional differences,the effect of overcoming overcapacity in the central and western regions by way of enlarging the export proportion is obviously better than that in the eastern region.This paper further draws a conclusion that in the process of eliminating overcapacity at present,we should give full play to the positive role of export trade,enhance the export competitiveness and export efficiency of products,reduce the intervention of government behavior and improve the level of science and technology,encourage and support the expansion of the level of opening and releasing in the central and western regions,and increase the proportion of export trade to the East.The region should play a relatively good level of science and technology and regional advantages.The emphasis of export trade should be on optimizing trade structure and improving product quality.