A Study For The Impact Of India's Future Oil Demand To China

The rise of China and India has made the Asia-Pacific region become an important oil consumption center.With the economic development of the two countries in the future,the demand for oil has gradually increased and oil supply security issues will become a major challenge for China and India.Studying the status quo of oil consumption and trade in India,understanding the future oil demand of India and the competitive relationship with China,has practical guidance significance for China's oil supply security and provides reference for policy makers in future strategic choices and formulation.This article analyzes the status and characteristics of oil in China and India by analyzing the status of oil supply and demand in China and India,the status quo of trade,and the global trade pattern.Based on the crude oil trade data of China and India from 2007 to 2016,this paper calculates the diversification index,risk index and competition index of crude oil imports between China and India,and selects annual data from 1993 to 2016 for all countries in the network to build a complex network model of international crude oil trade.We have some conclusions as follow:The results of the diversification index show that with the increasing reliance on crude oil in the Middle East,China's crude oil import diversification index has been slowly declining.Benefiting from the gradual reduction in the proportion of crude oil imported from the Middle East and the increasing proportion of imports from Central and South America,the oil imports of India has become more diversified,which has significantly reduced the crude oil import risk index.The oil diversification strategy of India has led to an increasing in the degree of coincidence with the origin of China's crude oil imports.In the foreseeable future,China and India will inevitably have a competitive relationship in accessing overseas resources.There will be the biggest competition of overseas resources between China and India,which may come from the Middle East,West Africa and Central and South America by analyzing competitive index.Among the national crude oil trading networks,the trade relations between China and India began to increase in 2000,but India's growth rate was significantly higher than that of China.After the financial crisis in 2008,India became the top 10 country of import,which continued to grow afterwards.Compared to the developed countries,China and India have lower national status in the international crude oil trade network.With the rapid economic development,the national status of China and India has gradually increased.The study of the evolution of the crude oil international trading network by analyzing international events has revealed that the country's status fluctuates due to economic factors,such as the Asian financial crisis and the U.S.financial crisis,the war and the turmoil in the situation will affect the oil supply and the change of the country's status.