Forecast Of China’s Energy Consumption Based On Combination Model

Energy industry plays an important role in national economic development.Since the 21st century,world energy development has entered a new round of strategic adjustment.Developed and emerging countries have developed energy development strategy by directing energy technology roadmap.In current,our economy has entered a new normal,China’s energy consumption growth rate is gradually slowing down.At the same time,"Thirteen Five" period is the critical time of China’s economic transformation and upgrading,energy adjustment of the layout,the overall reform of social,"Thirteen Five" energy strategy is related to the future development of the energy industry,production layout,affect energy investment decisions and management run.Thus,with the adjustment of the layout of China’s energy strategy,to accurately predict the total energy consumption will play an important role,not only to promote the rapid and healthy development of China’s energy industry and provide a theoretical basis for decision making has great practical value,but also for the economy and society can sustainable development has an important theoretical and practical significance.This article evaluate the energy consumption by a combination model of gray theory prediction and time series.According to the total energy consumption historical data in 1978--2015,this article forecasts the energy consumption of"Thirteen Five" period by separately constructing quadrature autoregressive moving average models ARIMA(3,2,3)model and gray theory GM(1,1).And it calculate the weight coefficient of the ARIMA(3,2,3)and GM(1,1)model through the standard deviation method,then obtained the mean relative error of combined model predictions,with this combination model this article predicts the total energy consumption in China from 2016 to 2020.Fitting case based on the relative error and a single model and model combination forecasting model,we can see that combination forecasting model forecast precision is better than single prediction model prediction.From forecasting model predictions,China’s annual total energy consumption continues increasing during the "Thirteen Five".The total energy consumption in 2020 will reach 4.8017 billion tons of standard coal,and the total energy consumption is still high.It can be seen that China’s total energy consumption is relatively high,and according to the constant price of 2015,2015 China’s unit GDP energy consumption of 0.61 tons of standard coal/million,the proportion is still high.As China’s economy into a new normal,energy strategy adjustment related to the future energy industry development and production layout.Therefore,on the one hand,China should speed up the total energy consumption and consumption structure adjustment,improve the overall efficiency of energy systems,reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP,vigorously promote energy conservation,increase environmental governance.On the other hand,increase the construction of energy technology innovation system investment,the development of green energy;build the global energy Internet,and actively learn from the international advanced experience.