Modeling Analysis Of China’s Total Energy Consumption Predictive

Mining is China’s national economy’s basic industry, since the beginning of the21st,China successively emerges energy supplying shortage, such as "shortage of oil"," shortageof coal ". The relevant data shows that economic losses caused by the energy shortage isabout20-60times the value of the energy itself. China energy demand has become a focus ofconcern during “the12th Five-Year Planning”.The paper is based on the status of China’s energy consumption and the analysistheories of energy demand. China’s total energy consumption is the object of study. Based onthe China’s total energy consumption data of1978-2010, it progresses the modeling analysisand predicts the China’s total energy consumption in the “12the Five-Year planning” period.Firstly, the paper uses the ARIMA model to predict the China’s total energyconsumption and finds that the ARIMA(1,2,1) model passes the model adaptability test. Ithas higher overall fitting accuracy and the model is applied to predict the China’s totalenergy consumption in the “12th Five-Year planning” period. Secondly, uses quadratic curvetrend extrapolation modeling analysis, the quadratic curve, logarithmic curve, cubic curve,exponential curve, four different curve model analysis to predict the China’s total energyconsumption. It founds that the predictive effect of the cubic curve model is the best. Andthen uses it to predict the total energy consumption of China’s in “12the Five-Year planning”period. Then, use the gray forecasting GM(1,1) model to predict and use the GM(1,1)passing test to predict the China’s total energy consumption in the “12the Five-Yearplanning” period. Finally, based on the three single models, use the right combination andstandard deviation combination to combine the three single models to predict the total energyconsumption in China’s12th Five-Year planning period. Compared by the true value, itfinds that the combination model result is better than a single model and standard deviationmethod result is better than right combination model.Finally, according to the above analysis, it gives a conclusion. It puts forward that weshould accelerate the development of the non fossil energy, improve the energy efficiency,and implement the strategy of "going out" and so on.