A Study On The National Debt To The Fiscal Sustainability Of Central Government Of China

Under the new normal,the growth rate of China's financial revenue has declined,economic growth has slowed,the size of the national debt is climbing.Maintaining the central fiscal sustainable and preventing financial risks are of great significance to China's ecnomic security.The issue of fiscal sustainability can be traced back to the1920 s in the West.In recent years,due to the spread of the global financial crisis,many countries have taken a series of means such as tax reduction,investment,expansion of deficit and debt financing to promote economic development,but these positive fiscal policies have led to the situation of high debt.The European sovereign debt crisis in 2011,the United States in 2010 to adjust the debt ceiling phenomenon have caused a severe market shock,prompting scholars and governments to focus on the study of fiscal sustainability.This paper starts from the definition of central fiscal sustainability,the relationship between national debt and central fiscal sustainability,and the empirical analysis of central fiscal sustainability.Second,the debt has affected a country's central fiscal sustainability through the four aspects of its structure,size,use of repayment of interest expenditure,fiscal deficits,inflation and Seigniorage,the impact of economic growth.In the analysis of the factors which influence the central fiscal sustainability,we find that there is a certain risk in the current central finance of our country.In this paper,we establish a six-variable vector autoregressive model to demonstrate the long-term impact of the national debt on the sustainability of the central government's fiscal shock.The error correction model is established to investigate the short-term deviations from the long-term direction.And based on the relationship between the variables,we measured the sustainability of the deficit rate,judging from 1986 to 2014,in addition to 1999 and 2009,the national debt on the central financial sustainability of the impact are within the limits.So,we can conclude that the central Finance is sustainable.Finally,based on the empirical results above,we summarized the conclusions and put forward he some pertinent policy suggestions.