Research On The Sustainability Of National Debt Scale

The development history of China's national debt is relatively short.The initial increase in the size of national debt is small,and the growth rate is slow.After 1994,it entered the stage of rapid development of national debt.The implementation of the tax-sharing system made the government's active fiscal policy more than the issuance of national debt,and the absolute size of national debt continued to increase.Big.Since 2012,China's economic development has entered a new normal,emphasizing the high quality,sustainability and stability of economic development,mitigating the overcapacity of some industries,promoting the development of green and low-carbon,and stimulating the emergence of new products and new industries.With the government's financial support,the government has implemented a proactive political and financial policy for several consecutive years.The increase in fiscal expenditures and the reduction in fiscal revenues caused by tax cuts and reductions will inevitably lead to further increases in the size of national debt.The scale risk of national debt will seriously affect financial stability and cause economic fluctuations.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the sustainability of national debt scale at this time.This paper will study the problem from the following aspects:(1)Constrained by three common indicators of deficit rate,national debt dependency and national debt burden rate,it is considered that the size of national debt exceeding the upper limit of the index value is unsustainable.Since the commonly used indicator warning line value is calculated according to the actual economic situation of western countries,it has strong regional characteristics and is not very suitable for measuring the level of China's national debt.Therefore,this article will be based on the actual situation of China's economic development.The warning line values of the commonly used indicators are corrected,and the analysis of the indicator values based on the corrected warning line values is not completely consistent with the analysis conclusions before the warning line correction.(2)Subdivide the concept of national debt,and divide the national debt into narrow national debt and general national debt.Narrow government bonds refer to the central government directly responsible for debts that are directly repayable,and general government bonds should also include various types of debts that may be liable for repayment.Contingent debts are highly concealed and uncertain,and they are more threatening to financial stability.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the sustainability of the scale of generalized government bonds.Through literature review,it is found that the contingent liabilities of the Chinese government mainly include social security expenditure gap,medical and health expenditure gap,local government debt,state-owned enterprise liabilities,and non-performing assets of state-owned commercial banks.Among them,the social security expenditure gap and the health care expenditure gap are the debts that the government will better perform in fulfilling its public functions.The remaining contingent debts are taken into account in the government's rescue obligations.Chapter 3 of this paper will estimate and count the scale of various types of contingent debts,in order to give the approximate scale of China's generalized national debt.The generalized national debt burden rate index calculated by generalized national debt shows that the unsustainable risk of China's national debt is very serious.(3)The analysis of the index value is an evaluation of the stock risk of the past and present national debt.The government's macro-control should not only focus on the size of the national debt,but should also pay attention to the continuous impact of the policy on the future economic operation.Therefore,this paper will take the dynamic impact of national debt on other economic variables in macroeconomic operation as the constraint condition of the scale of national debt.For the sake of data accuracy,build a PVAR model of provincial data based on narrow national debt,and study the scale of national debt.The impact of the impact on the dynamic and long-term impact of macroeconomic operations.Due to the regional effect of the impact of national debt,and considering the robustness of the model,31 regions were divided into the eastern,central and western regions and research was carried out.Although the results of the whole sample and sub-regions are different,in general,the current The size of the narrow national debt is more positive for other macroeconomic variables.The innovations of this article are:(1)Try to join contingent debt.Although the previous literature also mentioned the concept of contingent debt,but because the contingent debt data is difficult to obtain and estimate,most of the last data used in the article is a narrow national debt.The narrow national debt ignores the realization of government functions,and the narrow national debt is The relevant conclusions obtained from the data base may differ greatly from the actual risk situation.(2)Since national debt has only national-level data,the use of time-series data for research is the main practice of the existing literature.Based on the theoretical view that the national debt finally passed the tax repayment,this paper spreads the national debt to each province through the contribution of the four main taxes of 31 provinces and autonomous regions to the central taxation,constructs a four-variable PVAR model of provincial data,and solves the shortage of time series model samples.