Research On The Estimation Of Classification Of Public Capital Stock And Its Economic Growth Effect

Capital is an important factor in determining economic development,and public capital has always been regarded as a prerequisite and cornerstone of economic growth and social progress.Since Arrow’s incorporation of public capital stock into the macroeconomic model,the role of public capital in promoting economic growth has been widely accepted in theory,but not all of the conclusions in empirical research support this view.Under the basic economic system with public ownership as the main body,the scale of public investment and capital stock is closely related to economic growth.All regions have introduced policies to raise public capital to promote economic growth.However,public investment is only focused on increasing the number,not the characteristics of the region,nor the structural adjustment of public capital,may lead to less effective in promoting economic growth.On the basis of defining the scope of public capital,this article divides the public capital into two parts: the public capital of the economic base class and the public capital of social public welfare according to the industry department,and carries out stock estimation and empirical research on the economic growth effect of each part.First this paper analyzes the capital stock of the total public capital and its sub-structure from 1985 to 2015 through the perpetual inventory method,analyzes the present situation of public capital and its classification at present stage,and provides the data support for the follow-up study.Secondly,it analyzes the impact of public capital on economic growth from two aspects: demand effect and output effect,and analyzes the possibility of regional network effect of public capital.Finally,this paper calculated the public investment pull rate of economic growth,and using the data of public capital stock and GDP from 1997 to 2015,the spatial panel model is used to analyze the economic growth effect of public capital.And the total effect of the classified public capital is decomposed into two parts: direct effect and indirect effect,and the effect of public capital stock on the economic growth of the region and the surrounding area is analyzed.The conclusion shows that,first of all,the stock of public capital in our country generally shows the growth trend and is still in the stage of rapid growth.The economic base class and the social welfare class also show the overall trend of growth,and the growth rate of social welfare is faster than that of economic base.Secondly,public capital and its classification have a positive economic growth effect,and whenpublic capital increases,it will promote economic growth in the region.The output elasticity coefficient of economic base class is bigger,so the promotion effect of economic growth is more obvious,while the output elasticity coefficient of social welfare category is relatively small.Finally,the public capital of public welfare has a significant effect on the economic growth of the region and the surrounding areas,while the economic base class promoting economic growth in the region,also will lead to a slowdown in economic growth in other regions.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions in the light of the current situation of regional capital stock and regional differences: Increase public investment,especially in economically backward areas,while diversifying sources of funds and providing incentives to attract private investment into the public sector;according to the different needs of the region,adjust the public investment structure,a reasonable allocation of economic fundamentals and social public interest in the proportion of public investment in order to achieve the best economic growth effect;Optimize the regional planning,consider from the national level,trans-regional,cultural level and other angles,to promote public investment cooperation and development,to achieve regional mutual benefit.