The Influence Of Shadow Banking On The Asymmetry Of Monetary Policy In China

As a financing channel,the shadow banking provides a large amout of liquidity for the market.On the one hand,it meets the market financing demands during the periods of tightening monetary policy in time,on the other hand,it reduces the precision of the generalized money supply index and makes it difficult to achieve the precise regulation of monetary policy on the economy,as the Central Bank and other regulators have yet to establish a monitoring system for the money supply provided by shadow banking and the market liquidity scale counted by the Central Bank omit the part that the shadow banking contributed.The paper uses TVP-VAR model to explore the influences of shadow banking on asymmetric effects of monetary policy implementation in different economic periods.From the empirical level,the article chooses the monthly year-on-year growth rate of the shadow banking scale,broad money supply,industrial added value and consumer price index as the empirical variables,and constructs TVP-VAR model based on the monthly data from January 2006 to September 2016.Through the analysis of impulse response diagram,the paper draws the following conclusion:(1)The shadow banking plays a positive role on the economic growth.In the periods of expansionary monetary policy,a large amount of funds are injected into the economy through commercial bank credit channels,which leads to the decreasing sources of funds and slower growth of shadow banking and relatively small contribution of shadow banking to the economy;In the periods of tight monetary policy,the shadow banking makes relatively large contribution to the economy growth,because the limitation on credit channels of commercial banks allows large amounts of funds to be absorbed by shadow banking and through credit creation function to provide more money supply for the market.(2)During the expansionary monetary policy periods and the tight monetary policy periods,the existence and development of shadow banking has a certain role in promoting the price level,which is mainly due to its credit creation function.(3)From the perspective of implementation effects,we know that China's monetary policy itself exists such a phenomenon,that is,the monetary policy to curb economic overheating has a better performance than the monetary policy to prevent economic decline;The shadow banking,however,has an offsetting effect on the implementation results of the tight monetary policy to curb economic overheating and an enhancement effect on the implementation results of the expansionary monetary policy to contain the recession,which has alleviated the asymmetry of implementation effect of monetary policy during different economic periods to a certain extent.Therefore,to make the process of monetary policy transmission more efficient and to fully realize the central bank's economic regulation and control purposes,on the one hand,Central Bank should take the shadow banking as a link in the monetary policy transmission process and make full use of promoting effects of shadow banking on the economy during the periods of economic downturn,at the same time,appropriate measures should be taken to prevent the occurrence of inflation;on the other hand,Central Bank should moderately reduce the negative impacts of the shadow banking on the effects of monetary policy during the periods of economic boom.