The Public Access To Information And The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy From The Perspective Of Uncertainty

The public expectation attracts much attention in the research of monetary policy,forward guidance which has been paid general attention in developed countries could be regarded as a newest practice in expectation management.The evolution of expectation depends on information,so the public access to information has great influence on the formation of expectation.Whether the information could correctly guide the public expectation will influence the effectiveness of monetary policy,at the same time,the diversity of information and the individual difference may cause the uncertainty of policy actions.This paper theoretically analyzes the influence of policy information on the public expectation and behavior,and adopts a macroeconomic model which contains Brainard’s uncertainty caused by random response coefficient to explore the impact of uncertainty resulted from the public access to information on the effectiveness of monetary policy.In the empirical analysis,we create the Public Information Acquisition Index(SI)based on Internet search data which reflects the behavior of obtaining information through the Internet.The SVAR model which based on the monthly data from 2011 to 2016 has been applied to compare the difference of the quantitative monetary policy instruments and the priced monetary policy instruments,and the effect of SI on monetary policy execution.The result shows the public access to information more frequently in recent years,it means the rising demand and attention of economic information.While the uncertainty rises at the same time and this has negative influence on the effectiveness of monetary policy.At this stage,the policy maker should promote the clear communication of policy,and more importantly,the properly using and understanding.Moreover,when the uncertainty is taken into consideration,the impact of monetary policy on the target of output is limited even ineffective,so the realization of the stability increase in economy requires the cooperation with other measures.