The Influence Factors Of Cross-Border Capital Inflows Volatility Under Transnational Panel

International capital flows are the most active and influential parts of economic activities,and with the development of the global economy,international capital flows are playing an increasingly important role in global economic development.In general,international capital inflows can improve the efficiency of a country's resources allocation,ameliorate domestic macroeconomic.At the same time,the international capital flows may promote a country's economy unstable,or even worsen the domestic economy.Especially for developing countries,international capital movements may have a more severe impact on their domestic macroeconomic economies due to their lower risk tolerance than developed countries.Furthermore,the international capital flows tend to be slow at present and bring a huge influence on the globe economy.Although the influential factors of international capital flows are studied in a large number of literatures,there are relatively few literatures studied on the influencing factors of capital flows volatility.Before the financial crisis,researchers focused on net capital flows volatility and after the financial crisis many researchers began to focus on cross-border capital inflows and volatility cross-border capital outflows volatility Considering that the developing countries mainly rely on cross-border capital inflows,this paper mainly studies the influence factors of subdivision types of cross-border capital inflows on fluctuation and hopes to supplement existing research to some extent.We first compare the existing fluctuations measuring methods,and choose the ARIMA choice model to estimate the standard deviation as capital flows volatility,and compare the segment types for capital inflows volatility in different levels countries.On this basis,this paper using quarterly data for 29 developing countries and 17 developed countries over the period 2007Q1-2017Q1,establishing the unbalanced panel model research subdivision types cross-border capital flows fluctuation influence factors,and compare the subdivision types of cross-border capital flows volatility influencing factors in the full sample countries,developed countries and developing countries.Finally,replacing the important explanatory variables on developing countries for stability testing.We conduct some results through research.Firstly,there are differences in the influence factors of different types of cross-border capital inflows volatility,and the same factor has different effect on different developing level countries.Secondly,in view of the volatility of the segment types for cross-border capital inflows,they are largely influenced by global factors.For the fluctuation of gross cross-border capital inflows,it is mainly influenced by market volatility index,international reserve ratio,annual change rate of stock market index,and broad money change rate.The fluctuation of foreign direct investment is mainly affected by market volatility index,GDP growth rate,Gross domestic product per capita and bank capital ratio.The fluctuation of investment portfolio is mainly influenced by market volatility index,international oil price,GDP growth rate,Gross domestic product per capita and bank property rate.For other investment fluctuations,it is mainly influenced by US economic growth rate,international reserve ratio,bank rate and annual change rate of stock market index.The fluctuation of trade credit is mainly influenced by market volatility index and trade openness.Taken together,it highlights the importance of global factors,but the domestic economic factors cannot be ignored either.