Analysis On Dynamic Characteristics Of Precautionary Saving Behavior Of Urban Residents In China

Since the reform and opening up,China has made remarkable achievements in economic development,the total economy has leapt to the world second.However,in recent years,the extraordinary growth of residents' savings has aroused widespread concern in the community,especially since the 1990s,our residents have maintained a high level of savings,and showing a clear upward trend.Under the current new normal economy,it is of great significance to enhance the pulling effect of consumption on the economy.Although the government has adopted a variety of measures to stimulate the consumption of residents,reduce savings,but the effect is not ideal.Therefore,it is the hotspot of scholars to explore the reasons of the high savings behavior of Chinese residents.Some scholars have tried to study the consumption behavior of Chinese residents through the theoretical framework of traditional life cycle-lasting income hypothesis,but the framework is deduced under certainty conditions,and China is currently deepening the reform period.There are a lot of uncertainties,and the deterministic framework is not suitable for the study of the consumption and saving behavior of our residents in the current economic environment,so many scholars will not determine the introduction of analytical framework,from the perspective of precautionary savings to study the savings behavior of our residents.Based on the theory of precautionary savings,this paper uses the state space model and the Kalman filter algorithm to prevent the residents from the general population,the different income groups and the residents in different regions from the perspective of precautionary savings and uncertainty.Empirical test,estimate the intensity of the precautionary savings motive,and carry on the detailed analysis to its dynamic characteristic.This article consists of six chapters.The first chapter is the introduction.Firstly,the background and the meaning of the topic are expounded from the current economic environment.Secondly,the research ideas and frame structure of this paper are expounded.Finally,the research methods and possible innovations of this paper are described.The second chapter is literature review.We first introduce the classical consumption theory,and then focus on the theory of preventive savings,and the latest research on the theory of preventive savings at home and abroad were introduced and reviewed.The third Chapter is an overview of the model for preventive storage.In order to select an empirical model of preventive savings,this chapter presents three classic models for studying the precautionary savings motivations and compares them.The fourth chapter is the theoretical model and the estimation method of empirical analysis.This chapter introduces the state space model and the Kalman filter algorithm,and constructs the space model of preventive saving state.The fifth chapter is the dynamic characteristics of urban residents' precautionary savings behavior.First,we first analyze the characteristics of consumer behavior in China,and then carry out empirical tests on urban population,different income classes and different regions respectively.We analyze the dynamic characteristics of precautionary savings behavior in detail.The sixth chapter is the conclusion and policy recommendations.Summed up the results of the full text of the study,and then based on the results of the study,to release the precautionary saving motive and control of urban residents in China to promote a number of policy recommendations.Through the different angles of China's urban residents to the dynamic characteristics of precautionary savings behavior analysis,this paper draws the following conclusions:First,the urban residents and rural residents have a strong incentive to prevent the savings,rural residents to prevent the savings of less than urban residents,since the 90s of last century,China's urban residents to prevent the stability of the overall savings trend,By contrast,the trend of rural residents is more stable.Secondly,regardless of the income level,the urban residents in China have a strong incentive to prevent the savings.Among them,the middle and low income groups of urban residents to prevent the strongest incentive to save,high-income group of the weakest motive to save money,and low-income group of urban residents of the preventive savings motivation between the middle and high income groups,and the preventive savings motive of residents in each income group showed an upward trend.Thirdly,through the empirical analysis of the preventive savings motive of the urban residents in the eastern,central and western regions,there are obvious differences in the preventive savings behavior in the eastern,central and western regions of China,and the precautionary savings motive in the western region is higher than that in the central and middle In the east,this is negatively related to the level of development between regions in China.