Empirical Analysis For The Effect Of The Precautionary Saving Motive In The Consuming Behavior Of Chinese Inhabitants

Consumption and saving have always been the hot topic of academic research.Absorbed in thought on the basis of rational expectations， precautionary savings tointroduce uncertainty into the theory framework of analysis， analysis ofinter-temporal optimization behavior of consumers， is on the life-cycle hypothesis，and major expansion of the permanent income hypothesis. Since the beginning ofreform and opening up， the Chinese Government according to the situation at homeand abroad to develop and implement a series of measures. These policy measuresimprove China’s macroeconomic stability， high speed of development， and also thelevel of savings continued exceptional growth. The high savings rate not only reducedconsumption levels， to achieve the high level of quality of life of residents， but alsoresult in insufficient domestic demand for China’s economic development.Responding to this issue， Chinese scholars introduce preventive theory to explain thephenomenon in the West and find a solution.According to Western theory of precautionary savings， income and expenditureanalysis of preventive savings motivation both have the possibility to impact onconsumer behavior in China. First， the article makes a summary of the research onprecautionary savings. Second， according to the characteristics analysis of consumerbehavior in the context of China’s economic development process， article proves theexistence of uncertainty of income and expenditure. Article， collect and collate the1990--2010annual disposable income of urban and rural residents， consumerspending and consumer data. Derived from a linear consumption function reflect theECM model of consumer behavior. Using Eviews6.0software analysis concluded thatthe prevention of sexual motivation dramatically. Analysis results also show thatuncertainty of future expenditure on consumption behavior of residents’ incomeuncertainty over the impact of impact.There are three aspects to reduce preventive savings motivation in order toimprove resident consumption level in China: first， improving the incomedistribution system， higher disposable incomes in order to raise the level ofconsumption；Second，the complete system as soon as possible，improve the socialsecurity system， reducing the uncertainty in consumer spending； Thirdly，promoting consumer upgrades， providing space for consumption growth， increase the rate of consumption.