An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of China-Myanmar Import And Export Trade On Myanmar's Economic Growth

With the development of the world economy,in order to develop their economies every government has adopted positive polices and measures to open the door of the economy.Nowadays economic globalization and regional economic integration have become the main trend.And import and export trade plays a key role in the economic growth.Located in southeastern Asia,Myanmar borders on China's Yunnan province.Its geographical position has great advantages in the development of trade.As a neighbor of China,Myanmar has maintained close relations with China.Through many years exchange in economy,policy and culture,China and Myanmar established a deep "paukphaw" friendship.In recent years,the import and export trade between China and Myanmar has grown rapidly,and boarded a new level.China has become the largest trading partner of Myanmar.Based on the geographical advantages and highly complementary in economy,China and Myanmar have great potential in developing their import and export trade.In this paper,the study on the import and export trade between China and Myanmar is divided into three aspects,as follows:First of all,we review the history of China-Myanmar import and export trade,then we further analysis its development status.The results showing that Myanmar trade deficit is surging,and the total trade volume is small.The structure trade between China and Myanmar is unreasonable and needs to be improved.Second,the empirical analysis of China-Myanmar 's import and export trade impacted on Myanmar' s economy has been done.Through establishing VAR model and error correction model,we can draw conclusions on the relationship between China-Myanmar's trade and Myanmar's GDP,by using unit root test,co-integration test and impulse response function analysis.The empirical results showing that China-Myanmar's trade has a positive effect on the growth of Myanmar's GDP,and the impact of Myanmar's import to China on Myanmar's GDP is stable,the impact of Myanmar's export to China on Myanmar's GDP is unstable,and sometimes there is aslight negative impact.Finally,based on the above conclusions,we put forward some policy suggestions for the development of China-Myanmar's trade in the future.Myanmar will take political measures to optimize the import and export structure of Myanmar commodity,change the mode of trade growth,improve the ability of import and export.Myanmar will also vigorously develop domestic agriculture,forestry and tourism to promote their own economic.China should strengthen cooperation with Myanmar in these areas to achieve mutual benefit.