The Impacts On Natural Rubber Trade Between China And Thailand Under Thailand Joined AEC

China is the world's largest importer of natural rubber,and Thailand is the world's largest natural rubber exporter,the natural rubber trade on both sides have a very important significance.In recent years,the world's natural rubber trade volume was declining,which make hidden dangers to China's industry which rely on natural rubber in their raw material resource and Thailand's natural rubber cultivation and traders,so the natural rubber trade structure needs to conduct a new exploration and adjust.December 31,2015,Thailand signed the AEC agreement,AEC construction goal is to build the ASEAN Economic Community to a common market,making product,services,financial investment,labor and goods freely flow.Its specific goal is to build a unified production base and consumer market,conform to the development trend of global economic and gradually improve the competitiveness of regional economy.AEC has defined 12 industries including natural rubber under the concept of a unified market and production base and is committed to providing more convenient trade and investment conditions for world trading partners,which is a new door for China and Thailand trade cooperation in natural rubber.Therefore,based on the analysis of the development of natural rubber industry and the structure of China and Thailand natural rubber trade,this paper puts forward the influence of AEC on the natural rubber trade of China and Thailand,and comes up with three key factors:trade competition of AEC region,natural rubber upstream and downstream industry chain transfer and price fluctuations,and the trade competition of AEC region and price fluctuations will negatively affect the China and Thailand trade in natural rubber,China's direct investment to AEC region will positively affect the China and Thailand natural rubber trade.Then,based on the analysis of the whole paper,the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to optimize the China and Thailand rubber trade cooperation.The article is divided into three parts:The first part:Chapter 1 and Chapter 2 mainly talk about the background and significance of this paper,the research methods,the innovation and the insufficiency,the literature review of the predecessors' research and the main supporting theory of this paper,and briefly introduce the natural rubber products classification and use.The second part:Chapter 3 and Chapter 4,these two chapters focus on the analysis of the changes in the supply and demand of natural rubber in the world in recent years,China and Thailand import and export structure of natural rubber,and the possible impact of AEC on the natural rubber trade of China and Thailand.Chapter 4 takes the method of hypothesis test.Firstly,it explains the influencing factors by logical analysis,and then uses the cointegration test to verify the empirical conclusion.The third part:Chapter 5 and Chapter 6,are the combination of the previous data and conclusions,under the AEC background,how to improve China and Thailand rubber industry,industrial cooperation level,expand the scope of cooperation,give full play to the advantages of both sides put forward countermeasures and suggestions,And draw the full text of the conclusion and the China and Thailand rubber industry cooperation in the future.