Process Assessment And Risk Analysis Of Retail Electricity Marketization Based On Multidimensional Evaluation Model

The new round of power system reform has determined the direction of the retail electricity marketization,but how to promote marketization reform lacks sufficient successful experience for reference.The reform of retail electricity market is a pioneering task,unreasonable reform measures will lead to the instability of the retail market and increase the market risk.Therefore,in order to ensure a smooth transition of the electricity market reform,it is necessary to institute reasonable reform measures and scientifically assess and avoid market risks.Against this background,this paper conducts the process assessment and risk analysis of retail electricity marketization based on the multidimensional evaluation model and carries out the following research work:First of all,based on the direction of retail electricity market reform,this paper analyzes the new characteristics of market-oriented reform,and propose three stages of promoting market-oriented reform.A set of indexes are established to evaluate the process and development trend of retail electricity market reform from the aspects of market mechanism,market openness,service diversity and user satisfaction.Principal component analysis method is used to calculate the weights of indexes and evaluate the process of marketization,which can provide reference for making reform measures in the next step.Second,since the regional differences will lead to the different process of electric reform,this paper analyzes the regional characteristics from the aspects of energy,economy and industrial structure,and determines the influencing factors of regional electric reform.By summarizing the main features of the market in each stage,the key objectives of promoting the market-oriented reform are concluded.Through the causality analysis and regression,causal chain between the influencing factors and the targets is obtained,the importance of each influencing factor to promote the regional electricity reform is determined.From the regional perspective,detailed reform measures in next step are presented.Finally,in order to cope with the market risk introduced by reform measures,risk assessment index of the transition period is established.Considering the bad effect caused by index correlation,this paper uses orthogonal method to remove the correlation between indexes,and uses the deviation standardization and index mapping to set up the judgment matrix which is a key part of the AHP method.Then the index weight is calculated by AHP,so that important risks in the process of retail electricity marketization are determined.In this paper,case studies are carried out in all the major chapters.Cases choose the evaluation results of subjective indicators and the statistics of objective indicators as input to verify the accuracy of the proposed model.The results of the cases show that the proposed method can effectively evaluate the marketization process and determine the important risks of the electricity market,which provide a reference for promoting the retail electricity reform.