Research On Decision Making Optimization Methods Of Airline Operation Control

From the analyzing of the case study of domestic flights and the research from the Airlines Operation Control Center,the article found that at present,the time-efficiency of the AOC's decision is inadequate and the AOC cannot correct the decision perfectly.Although the PIC is fully responsible for the flights and makes the final decision,the AOC has the responsibility to provide the operation suggestions.As the core of the AOC,the dispatcher's decision based on the situation of the flight will greatly influence the safety and efficient of the flight.Facing the influence on the flight caused by some uncertain factors,how can a dispatcher make and fix decision in uncertain circumstance to optimize the operation control decision is the research target.First,the article analyzed the historical data of the flight by Anderson-Darling and I-MR control chart,and refer to the result as the data support of the operation decision making,so as to optimize the operation decision on assess the state of the flight and correct the time slots of making decisions.And then use the M/M/C queuing theory to assess and choose best Alternates,and construct the diverting queuing model.Moreover,the article bring up an idea which is to choose the optimized Alternate option according to queuing probability and queuing length.Secondly use the Risk Decision-making Theory to solve the tricky problem on the uncertain circumstance during the In-Flight stage,constructed an In-Flight decision model,and through the Dynamic Decision Theory which is composed of Bayes Probability Theory and Decision Tree,to let the new information judge and adjust the prediction of the flight circumstance,this improved the methods of making flight operation decisions.Finally analyze the sensitivity oftheadjustment of the decision in uncertain circumstance,represented the difference of the decision in various circumstances and their adjust process.The outputs of data analyze refers the segments P478-ATLAT and ATLAT-TOD largely cannot be fully controlled by flight plan,as is known from the analyze of the instance of the CTU-CAN flight's samples,the probability of the arise of the small deviation on fuel consumption is 0.76.These data is used to analyze the Risk decision-making during the In-Flight stage.Firstly locate two decision points,which were called T₁ and T₂,bringing the probability of the deviation of the fuel consumption into Bayes theory to calculate the joint probability,and input the data to the Decision Tree to get the best expected utility outcomes which are 0.6854 and 0.5817.And the AOC can refer the calculated results to make the best operation decision when confronting various conditions.The analyzed consequence indicated if the probability of the stability of the flight is between 40%and 70%,At the time of T₁,the decision to continue flight towards destination airport should be made,and if the deprivation of fuel consumption is rather serious,then the diverting decision should be made at T₂.The research's outcomes provide scientific methods of making the decision and flexible approach to adjust the decision on solving the problem of operating flights under undefined operation circumstances and also dynamic process for AOC.