The Research And Application Of Telecom Operator Procurement Demand Forecasting Model

With the fierce competition in the telecom operators' business market,purchasing management has become the key part of the telecom operators.Among them,purchasing demand management is the basis of purchasing process.Besides,ensuring the accuracy of the procurement needs and determining the efficiency of the process is the key factor for telecom operators to reduce costs,improve efficiency and enhance their competitiveness.This paper through to the telecom operators staff interviews research,explores the purchasing management process,the current key problems purchasing demand management mainly for the procurement needs to determine the process longer,in centralized procurement under the background of the bullwhip effect is obvious,the larger deviation of demand and poor timeliness and telecom operators purchase demand forecast and actual demand based on the experience reported,many procurement requirements gathering,the lack of reliable technical support.Therefore,this paper summarizes the elaboration on the procurement management,procurement management and procurement of telecom operators demand forecasting method of relevant literature,the migration will present BOM model used in traditional vehicle manufacturing in the communication construction project,and to build a complex scene segmentation,input parameters and adjust the parameters determined by law,determine the technical document history the data weighted average method and the configuration logic purchase requirement clear product configuration coefficient prediction model,provides a structured,simple and easy to operate the purchase demand forecasting model for telecom operators to purchase demand forecast and determination.In this paper,we take a telecom operator's provincial company as an example to sort out the complete model and data of the three major transport networks,cable access network and wireless network.Finally,through the historical data trial calculation,the output of more than 120 product categories and Quantity list,and compared with the actual product usage to verify the model prediction accuracy.The average error rate of the verification results is only 10%,which is 50%lower than the error rate of the original purchase demand collection method.The validity and practicability of the forecasting model are preliminarily proved.The model is flexible and easy to use,which is of great significance to optimize the procurement process and cost control of telecom operators.Procurement demand forecasting model makes telecom operators more reasonable and planned procurement,which can effectively reduce the sudden procurement costs,storage costs and construction time costs,to achieve procurement optimization and cost optimization.Model-based validation of the traditional procurement requirements collection and guidance to the final step-by-step replacement and IT curing can enable telecom operators to conduct procurement requirements management in a scientific,detailed and efficient manner,and release manpower on the procurement process to improve efficiency and accurately forecast procurement requirements,Lean management,for the procurement of telecom operators demand management is of great significance.