Analysis On The Cost And The Price Of Pasture Imported Products

In twenty-first Century,the state and government has been paying more and more attention,especially for alfalfa products,which account for 90% of forage products.At present,the aquaculture enterprises have established the awareness of the use of high quality pasture and set up the concept of high quality herbage to produce high quality and safe livestock products.The government has also issued relevant policies to provide a strong guarantee for the great development and prosperity of the pasture industry.However,the contradiction between the increasing demand of high yield and high quality forage products and the current low yield and quality has been increasing.The import of high quality forage has become an important way to solve this contradiction and meet domestic demand.The cost is the inner basis of the price formation of agricultural products.The price of agricultural products is affected by the cost,and the rising cost will lead to the rise of the price.On the other hand,any change in the supply and demand will cause the change of price.Therefore,forage price is bound to be influenced by forage product cost,import volume and output.The change of the import price of herbage has a direct effect on the cost of the importation of the imported herbage,which will affect the income of the imported herbage.The culture enterprises do not touch the influence of the cost changes on the main import land.Therefore,the cost must be analyzed so that we can make the most favorable forage import and use decisions when the cost changes are large and the price of forage imports fluctuates drastically.The import demand of Alfalfa affects the change of import price.Therefore,supply and demand analysis is needed to explore the change of import price under the combined action of supply and demand.And the data from the domestic import of Alfalfa shows that the increase of import volume will bring about the rise of import price.Most obviously,between 2008 and 2012,the import volume of 4 years is rising exponentially,the import price rises from 178 US dollars / tons to 418 us dollars per ton,so this article forecasts the import volume,and analyses whether the import volume cause the import price to rise substantially.Based on the above background,the main task of this research is: first,analyze the cost of the American alfalfa unit products and compare the cost of alfalfa products between China and the United States from the perspective of cost behavior.It is found that the long-term effect of the cost of alfalfa on the import price of China is mainly reflected in the logistics cost,land cost and processing cost.The logistics cost,the land cost and the processing cost are mainly reflected in the long term.At present,the biggest impact on import price is the logistics cost,especially the logistics cost of shipping,and the cost of logistics is the highest in unit cost.If the cost of logistics is stable in a short time,then the import price tends to be stable.The domestic variable cost and the fixed cost are all high because of the low production and small scale,the fixed cost of the product is much bigger than that of the United States.Second,analyze the influence on the import price from the perspective of supply and demand;use the ARIMA model to predict the import volume,analyze the fluctuation characteristics of the import price of Alfalfa from January 2008 to December 2017,use the Census X12 seasonal adjustment model to eliminate the seasonal factors and the irregular elements,and further adopt the HP filter model to reveal the fluctuation and periodic change law of the import price of alfalfa.It can provide the basis of the cost control decision of the imported alfalfa,reduce the negative effects of the price fluctuation of alfalfa,and avoid the loss of the aquaculture enterprises because of the large fluctuation in the import price.Urging China to speed up the establishment of forage import price and cost monitoring system.