Research On The Impact Of Shadow Banking On The Stability Of My Country's Commercial Banks

Since the 2008 financial crisis,experts and scholars have begun to pay more and more attention to the relationship between the development of shadow banking and the stability of commercial banks.In 2012,Xiao Gang,chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission,believed that the most prominent risk in China's financial industry in five years was China's banking industry uncertainty caused by the shadow banking system in China.On January 29,2018,the deputy governor of the central bank,Yi Gang,stated that "shadow banks are included in the macro-prudential policy framework.Under the background of the new normal of the economy,the various environments faced by commercial banks are becoming increasingly severe,and the scale of shadow banks is also showing Increasing the trend.The shadow banking's influence on the stability of China's commercial banks has once again become a research hotspot for many scholars and institutions in the society.Preventing systematic financial risks is the primary core objective of financial supervision by the government regulators,and commercial banks are in the financial system of China.Occupying a particular position,the stability of commercial banks has a direct impact on the operating environment of China's entire economy and finance,so the stability of commercial banks has a positive and positive effect on the proper economic environment needed to entirely build a prosperous society.Because of the late start,the market It is relatively immature,which makes it impossible for the relevant fund demanders in China's financial system to obtain funds effectively,and the existence of shadow banking also has its advantages and rationality to a certain extent.At the same time,there are similar operations in the operation of shadow banking and commercial banks.Mechanisms such as taking deposits,issuing loans Money,credit creation,etc.,these factors make the development of shadow banking and the stability of commercial banks have a great relationship.This article first analyzes the effect of shadow banking on the stability of China's commercial banks,followed by a study of the scale of China's shadow banking,and uses related models to calculate,avoiding the significant errors caused by direct addition and subtraction,and measuring the results.Consistent with the official data,the overall outcome of the shadow bank scale is an upward trend.In 2016,the scale of shadow banking reached 60.51 trillion yuan,an increase of 9.39 trillion yuan from 2015,an increase between 1992 and 2016.Maximum value.The second is the measurement of bank stability,adding three significant factors such as macroeconomic factors,financial factors,and bank's operating factors to construct the stability index of commercial banks.It is concluded that during the period from 1992 to 2016,the stability of China's commercial banks rose first and then declined the trend of.Finally,an empirical regression is conducted.This paper selects the stability of commercial banks as the dependent variable,the relative size of shadow banking as the independent variable,and adds the growth rate of control variable investment,GDP growth rate,and M2 growth rate,and selects multiple linear regression models for empirical verification.After the unit root test,cointegration test,and causality test,the model parameters were estimated,and the relative scale safety value of the shadow bank was finally measured as 45.2%.Finally,four recommendations were put forward to enhance the stability of commercial banks and prevent financial risks.They were:to use the role of the market interest rate self-regulation pricing mechanism;to strengthen the guidance of shadow banking operations;to establish a"standardized" shadow banking supervision system;to strengthen the internals of commercial banks.The management of the mechanism,etc.,provides policymakers and researchers with particular reference and reference significance.