Research On The Risk Factors And Early

Before 2014,there has been a "rigid cash" phenomenon in the bond market in China,and there has never been a bond default.As the economy entered the "new normal",the shift of economic growth and industrial restructuring made the economy face downward pressure.Credit risk in the bond market began to break out,and bond default incidents began to happen frequently.Based on the above background,this paper takes "11 Tianwei MTN2" as an example to study the risk factors and warnings of bond default,builds a bond risk early warning mechanism and a refined identification framework,and finally provides advice on how to improve the risk management ability of bond investors.First of all,this article comprehensively analyzes the risk factors of bond default,and lays the foundation for the following case analysis.Second,this article combines the case,and analyzes the reasons for default of "11 Tianwei MTN2"from the macro,industry,and company level.Then this article investigates the role of investors'ability to identify bond risks and the capability of credit ratings in identifying risks.Finally,based on the case revelation,this paper constructs a bond risk early-warning mechanism and refined identification framework,and from the perspective of supervision,credit rating and investors,provides suggestions on how to improve bond investors' risk management capabilities.The following conclusions have been drawn:First,the downturn in the macro economy,the emergence of excess capacity in the industry,and the deterioration of the company's operating conditions are all the important factors of bond defaults.Second,from the standpoint of individual financial indicators,indicators such as profitability-related indicators,interest guarantee multiples and quick ratios can provide an early warning of risks.When these indicators deteriorate,they need to start paying attention to the risks of bonds.Judging from the Z value of the comprehensive financial indicator,it first gave an early warning of the risk change.When the Z value began to be less than the critical value,investors should pay attention to the bond risk.Third,investors in the market have insufficient ability to identify risks and there are problems with the ratings of rating agencies and their lags,therefore,it is very important to build a comprehensive risk identification framework,establish a financial early warning mechanism for bond default risk,and improve credit rating methods.