Research On The Correlation Between Financial Leverage,real Estate Price And Financial Stability

With the continuous development of the economy,China's financial leverage has been continuously improved.In the financial crisis of 2008,the economy showed a downward trend.In order to stimulate the economy to expand domestic demand,the government introduced the "four trillion" economic stimulus policy at the end of 2009,and the central bank released a large amount of funds.Part of the arbitrage arbitrage in financial institutions;plus the real estate demand,but also a large part of the funds into the real estate,which has prompted China's financial leveraged water to rise rapidly,real estate prices.If the real economy is not supported,development will lead to a deepening of the bubble.These are not conducive to economic development.Since 2015,under the supply-side reform environment,the economy has been continuously rehabilitated under the general policy of "three to one,one reduction and one subsidy".Since de-leveraging in 2016,policies such as the new regulations on capital management have been introduced in 2018,the fundamentals of the economy have continued to decline,real estate prices have continued to rise only for more than a decade,and financial leverage has had a negative impact on the macro economy.Concerns and concerns.In view of the increasing financial leverage and real estate bubble in China,this paper focuses on comparing the changes in the impact of financial leverage and real estate prices on financial stability in different periods.Among them,financial stability includes financial market stability,foreign exchange market stability and macroeconomic stability.This will provide a more targeted solution to the problem of relevant government departments in China.Based on the monthly data of China from January 2002 to December 2018,this paper applies the principal component analysis method to obtain the comprehensive index of financial stability.The four principal components represent the comprehensive indicators of financial market stability and the stability of the foreign exchange market.Comprehensive indicators and comprehensive indicators of macroeconomic stability.On this basis,the SVAR model between financial leverage,real estate price and financial stability variables is constructed.The mutual influence between the three was studied.At the same time,the total time period is divided into three periods:stability,recession and recovery according to the law of economic cycle change and the past economic development process.The 2008 financial crisis and the time when the economy began to recover in 2012 are the nodes.Based on SVAR empirical analysis of the variation of three time periods.The conclusions show that financial leverage and real estate prices promote each other during the entire economic cycle,and the high level of both is not conducive to the stable development of financial markets.Overall,the impact of financial leverage on financial stability is greater than the impact of real estate prices on financial stability.The influence mechanism will have some fluctuations in the conduction process,but the final effect will be smaller and smaller,and will be maintained at a constant value.There is no difference in the change rule of the variance decomposition table between the comparison time period and the total time period.The contribution rate of financial leverage to financial stability is gradually enhanced,and the real estate price has a rising and then decreasing trend towards financial stability.Both are not conducive to financial stability.The difference is that financial leverage and real estate prices in different economic stages have different degrees of influence on financial stability.In the stage of steady economic development,financial leverage has the greatest impact on macroeconomic stability,and real estate prices have the greatest impact on the stability of financial markets.In the economic downturn,the changes in financial leverage and the fluctuations in real estate prices have the greatest impact on macroeconomic stability.In the economic recovery stage,financial leverage has the greatest impact on the stability of the foreign exchange market,and real estate prices have the greatest impact on macroeconomic stability.The stability of financial markets and the effective allocation of resources,combined with the current economic downturn in China,financial leverage and real estate prices have the greatest impact on macroeconomic stability,so the macroeconomic regulation and control policies are mainly divided into monetary policy and real estate policy to solve financial leverage.And economic problems brought about by real estate.