Study On Leverage Risks Of Real Estate In China From The Perspective Of Financial Stability

Since early 2017,the government has advocated the economic guiding ideology“ Make progress while maintaining stability ”,emphasizing stability first and then progressing.Then,in the process of China's economic restructuring and reform,the real estate as an important part of economic growth.It is very important to stabilize the housing market,adjust the leverage level of the real estate industry,and resolve the leverage risk of the real estate industry.From this perspective,an in-depth study of the leverage risk of real estate based on the perspective of financial stability has a strong theoretical and practical significance for realizing a soft landing of the real estate industry.First of all,based on the theory of financial resources,the current situation of monetary resources allocation in China's real estate industry is analyzed.Through the monetary fund allocation data of China since 2000,this paper probes into the present situation of real estate leverage under the background of macro resource allocation in China,and finds out the phenomenon of the current credit scale aggregation of the real estate market in China.Then,from the perspective of microeconomic leverage,we analyze the 138 listed companies in China's real estate,and found that there is generally a higher level of leverage than other general enterprises,which indicates the existence of potential leverage risks in the real estate industry.Secondly,in-depth analysis of the causes and hazards of leverage risk in China's real estate industry.It is found that the investment demand in the supply and demand of the real estate market will increase the leverage risk of the industry,and then affect the stability of the whole real estate economy.Under the credit support of banks and other financial institutions,the siphon effect between the real economy and the virtual economy will lead to hollowing out the industry.Then,this paper makes a theoretical analysis of real estate industry in China based on financial stability theory.On the basis of the quarterly data from 2005 to 2017,using factor analysis-principal component method to obtain financial stability index F adapted to national conditions.Based on the SVAR model,examining and analyzing the relationship between financial stability and leverage in the real estate industry,we found that there is a complementary relationship between the sustainability of the real estateindustry and the stability of the financial environment.The domestic financial stability index has shown a downward trend in recent years.Finally,this paper proposes suggestions for real estate leverage risk.First,increase macro-prudential supervision,establish counter-cyclical supervision mechanism for real estate finance,and prepare for systemic financial risk prevention.Second,accelerate the establishment of a diversified real estate financial system.Next,speed up financial innovation,optimize the financing structure,and promote the stable operation of real estate companies.At the same time,efforts were made to build a new type of housing system with “Rent and Purchase”and create a market-oriented land supply method based on land reserves.Last and most important,we must guide the flow of resources and promote the financial support of the real economy as the basic policy for financial development reform.In summary,this paper originality adopts the perspective of financial resources to analyze the proportion of China's real estate financial resources allocation,and based on the financial stability theory to create a financial stability index F to adapt to the national conditions,and finally uses SVAR model innovation to carry out the empirical work of the correlation between China's real estate industry leverage and domestic financial stability.This shows the status of the real estate industry gathering monetary resources in China.It has unique reference significance for the analysis of leverage risk in China's real estate industry.