| Lottery games as an entertainment product,people bet a small amount of money on a set of numbers in order to obtain a large number of bonus.The way in which bettors choose numbers may vary from region to region,culture to culture and even from individual to individual.Some players think that some numbers could bring good luck.Another part of players believe that they can beat the odds by using different tactics.Before the winning numbers drawn randomly to be proved,the fact that lottery is a game of chance has not been noticed or intentionally ignored by the players.It means that the bettors cannot use the existing information or use a certain formula to predict the winning number accurately in order to win the jackpot.The misunderstanding of the randomness and their influence on the irrational behavior of betting may also vary by region and culture.Therefore,this paper hopes to compare the irrational behaviors and the degrees of them in different regions through 7 similar three-digit lotteries in 5 countries or regions,they are welfare lottery "3D" and sports lottery "Arrange 3" in Mainland China,"Three Star" Lottery in Taiwan Province of China,Japan’s "Range 3"(Digital 3),three "PICK 3" Lottery in United States New Jersey and Texas and Ontario,Canada.Firstly,we make an overall descriptive statistical analysis on the irrational behaviors of players,and use the annual data of the “the Bias Degree of the Wining” to describe the annual changes of the overall irrational behavior of players.Secondly,we analyze the highest 100 and lowest 100 the ratio of returns for all seven games.Based on the distribution of the time of occurrence of these abnormal values,the trend of the overall irrational behavior of players is further discussed.Then,we use two samples to established a stepwise regression model and a panel data model,in order to explore the similarities and differences in the Control illusion of irrational behavior.The sample used to establish the stepwise regression model ranges from lottery issue date to December 31,2017.The sample used to create the panel data model included all the same data from the lottery draw date for the 2005 to 2017.Through the qualitative analysis of the descriptive statistics and the empirical analysis of the two models,we can draw the following conclusions: First,getting two or three same numbers in one draw,date-type numbers,serial numbers,and gambler fallacy will lead to abnormally high ratio of return.Then when two same numbers and unpopular numbers are drawn in one draw,descending numbers and gambler fallacy may lead to abnormally low ratio of return.Secondly,during the three years from 2015 to 2017,the level of irrationality of the three-digit lottery players has improved in mainland China,but compared with Japan,New Jersey USA,Ontario,Canada,the irrational level of three-digit lottery players in mainland China remains high.Finally,the three forms of control illusion differ greatly in performance in different countries or regions.The three-digit lottery players in mainland China has performed more prominently in gambler fallacy and showed a strong gambling mentality.Based on the conclusions,we believe that the government needs to increase the publicity and enforcement of policies to guide and restrain the irrational behavior of bettors.In addition,in terms of increasing sales of lottery,we think that merely change the number of draw in a lottery day could not achieve the goal.The relevant departments need to optimize the rules of how to play the three-digit lottery and set a better value of the ratio of return. |
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