A Study On The Development And Countermeasures Of Chinese Lottery From The Perspective And Of Playing Rule

In order to raise funds to support social welfare and sports construction,the state began to issue lottery tickets.The lottery industry,say the funds raised by the state to support welfare as well as sports,is regarded as a combination of interests,competitiveness and speculativeness.It belongs to the tertiary industry of the economy.Last three decades,the public welfare gold of the lottery had made great contributions to the social development and construction in China.However,in recent years,the growth rate of lottery ticket sales has been decelerating.Thus,it is necessary to study the situation of the lottery industry,and to excavate and solve the existing problems.“Double-color ball” is one of the most popular lotteries in China.This paper would focus on the development of the lottery industry by the using the example of “double color ball”,not only because of the limitation of related previous researches,but also because of its representativeness.Through investigating two groups of lottery-buyers and non-lottery-buyers,we find that the number of lottery users is less than 25% in total population,even the buyers of “Double-color ball”,the lottery with the highest sales only account for 3% in total population.The results also show that people have a certain preference when they choose the number for tickets(also called as “conscious selection”).In addition,it has been found that the rules of lottery(mainly refers to the probability of winning,capping amount of the higher award,bonus set and jackpot amount),the lottery channel,the publicity of the lottery's public welfare,the credibility in lottery activities and issuers,as well as related media coverage are factors affecting the conversion between the lottery-buyers and non-lottery-buyers.This paper studies the influence of two objective factors on the sales volume caused by the lottery design variables and the lottery channel,based on the perspective of playing rule.Firstly,we need to fit the probability density curve of the number of each award under "conscious selection".Then we calculate the distribution of the bonus of “double color ball”.This paper extends the three-order moment model of bonus distribution under the "conscious selection".On the basis of this,the paper studies how “lottery designing” variables affect the sales volume.Besides,we would like to make some suggestions on the existing rules of “double color ball” for further improvements on welfare lottery.For example,increasing the maximum amount of bonus and reducing the proportion of high-level bonus in the first part of the first prize might reduce the idle jackpot funds.We also recommend to regulate the rate of bonus distribution among higher prizes or raise the rate of award return to the sales.Through our empirical research,it is obvious that the closure of online lottery sales has a negative effect on the growth of sales volume.On the other hand,the existence of online sales lottery might lead to some problems,such as illegal sales,unfair distribution,arbitrage and other issues.Meanwhile,some countermeasures are put forward for further consideration.