The Research Of Financial Evealuation And Pre-warning Of Listed Companies In China's Garment Industry

Since 1960,the occurrence of major international bankruptcy cases has made foreign researchers more and more interested in exploring the early warning model of enterprise bankruptcy.In 50 years,they have developed a variety of early-warning model,such as the univariate model,multiple discriminant analysis(MDA)model,logistic model,recursively partitioned decision trees model,neural network(NN)mode,credit risk theories model and so on,these models from simple to complex reflects the importance of the foreign problems.Although there are few companies that declare bankruptcy according to the legal degree in our country because of the difference of the system,this does not mean that the factors that cause the bankruptcy of the company,especially the financial risk factors,have little impact on the enterprises and companies in China.Therefore,scholars in our country combined with domestic actual research on corporate finance early warning,use "ST" companies or the use of computer software to screen the financial performance bad companies as the research object,then,carries out the research on the financial early-warning model in all walks of life in China,and obtained many useful results.On the basis of these achievements,this article focus on the garment industry listed companies financial evaluation and early warning issues.First of all,this paper takes 35 A-share listed companies in the garment industry in 2015 Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange as the object of observation,according to cluster analysis(using the classification index data in 2015)to evaluating and classifing the financial risk status of these companies,analysis shows that 18 of the 35 companies with good financial standing and 17 with financial distress,and randomly selected normal and distressed companies each 13 as modeling samples,the rest of company is testing samples.Then,the primary 25 financial indicators were tested for independence,relevance and collinearity using the data of 2014,and the inventory turnover rate(X2),net operating profit(X10),the net content of net cash(X12),operating income growth rate(X18),cash ratio(X22)which passed the above three tests were used to construct the principal component early warning model and Logistic early warning model.At last,the financial properties of 35 listed companies in the garment industry in 2015 are predicted,which is based on the two models established in 2014 financial indicators data,than compared with the results of clustering analysis,that is the two models of testing,and the test results showed the fitting degree of the two models are quite satisfactory,but the accuracy of the Logistic early warning model is 80% which is better than the principal component early warning model,whether it is in the prediction of the model samples or the test samples.Therefore logistic early warning model is more suitable for the garment industry listed companies to understand and deal with the financial risks in advance,and to management control in its transition to a crisis or before,so as to maintain the sustained and healthy operation of the company.