China's Agricultural Product Price Regulation Policy And Its Effect

At present,China's agricultural products structure of supply and demand is unbalanced,and the sustained growth of farmers' income is not enough.The reform of agricultural supply side is the key point of national macro-control.And the reform of China's agricultural supply side is mainly based on the reform of grain price formation mechanism and important agricultural products storage system.In recent years,in the context of the rising cost of agricultural production materials,it is particularly important to stabilize the prices of agricultural products and prevent sharp fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products under the background of intensified impact on the international market.At the same time,it is necessary to promote market-oriented reform and strengthen the role of market in resource allocation,the object is to establish a price control mechanism that is dominated by market and supplemented by government.According to scholars' research on the reasons for the price fluctuation of agricultural products and the factors affecting it,The price fluctuation of agricultural products in China shows obvious periodicity,seasonality and randomness,which is related to the characteristics of agricultural production.From the cancellation of China's grain marketing policy to its accession to the World Trade Organization,the market-oriented reform of agricultural products has been continuously promoted and the scale of international trade has been continuously expanded.At present,China's agricultural product trade scale has surpassed that of the United States,ranking first in the world.The transmission of international agricultural product price fluctuations to China is also further deepened,especially for agricultural products with a high degree of marketization such as soybeans.The main factor of price fluctuation of agricultural products is the balance of supply and demand,which is also influenced by the price of production materials,natural climate,money supply,macro economy and energy price.This paper uses empirical analysis method and normative analysis method,analyses the characteristics of price fluctuation of agricultural products,the effectiveness of regulation policies and policy improvement direction.Since the reform and opening up,Chinese agricultural products price index showed a rising trend.Since the price elasticity of demand for agricultural products is low and the production cycle is relatively long,the price is prone to violent fluctuate,volatility in recent years declines slightly,and the possible reason may be the effectiveness of price control policies.This paper adopts ARCH models to analyze the agglomeration and asymmetry of price fluctuation and test the correlation between income and risk.The empirical results show that the price fluctuation of several major grain varieties has the characteristics of volatility concentration,sharp peak and thick tail.For rice,wheat and corn,the influence of past fluctuations gradually attenuates,and for soybean the impact of past fluctuations on the future continues.There are leverage effects in the wheat,corn,and soybean markets.The volatility caused by bad news is more intense than that of good news.In the short-term price volatility of rice,wheat,and corn converges,while soybean price volatility does not converge to unconditional variance.