Study On The Influencing Factors And Regulation Policy Of Agricultural Product Price Fluctuation

Prices for agricultural products is the foundation, which fluctuations will not only affect other product price, but also the residents’ daily life, even society stability and national long-term stability. In recent years, agricultural prices received widespread attention. For example, central file and the government report has emphasized on the regulation of agricultural prices, and pointed out that we should actively explore ways to establish the target price of farm products to stabilize prices of agricultural products. So as the stability of the agricultural production cost. The file and report point out to continue to strengthen and improve agricultural support protection policies. Production costs are the basis of agricultural prices.In the long run, the cost of agricultural production is the main driving force for agricultural products prices rising. So it is an effective way to achieve the purpose of regulating by stabling agricultural production costs. It is certainly significance to put forword price regulation policy suggestions from the angle of the cost of production after analyzing the relations between the agricultural prices and the cost of production.This article chooses rice, wheat, peanuts, rapeseed, vegetables and scale pig as the research object with the relevant data. Firstly, using stepwise regression method to clarify the agricultural production cost factors to analyze the significant factor in the cost of production; Secondly, using cointegration analysi’s for agricultural production cost and price to analyze the long-term stable relationship; Finally, establishing a double logarithmic linear regression model to measure the influence of production significant factors of cost on prices, for concluding that the significant factors affecting the production cost of dominant agricultural prices is not the same.It is necessary to be case-by-case basis to regulate agricultural prices by stabling agricultural production costs. That is to say, Focus on stabling the main dominant factors of production cost with asignificant influence on prices. In particular,to improve rice support policies, increase financial support, and protect rice cultivation land;to carry out Agricultural support policy for Wheat, peanuts, rape in a focused manner; to continue to implement subsidies for cub fee on scale pig;to test a general subsidieswith giving priority to the feed subsidies.