Research On Modeling And Simulation Of Syndication Decision Based On Evolutionary Game Theory

In order to accelerate the upgrading of the industrial structure,our country takes the innovation development as the core of the national development strategy.The concept of "mass entrepreneurship and innovation" is also in promoting the new development of Chinese economy,promoting the development of economy and the growth of high and new technology industry with innovation.As an accelerator to improve the enterprise innovation ability,venture capital plays a vital role in the development of new enterprise.Venture capital syndication has become a key financial power to expand China's venture capital industry and promote technological innovation with its advantages such as risk sharing,resource complementation and revenue sharing,however,the syndication includes different venture capital institutions with different strength background,cooperation status and different interest demands,syndication does not always achieve the original target,but it will accelerate the disintegration of the alliance,which is not conducive to the development of new enterprise.Given the investment background that venture capital syndication has a high speed growth combining with a high failure rate,it is very important to analyze the decision problem in the process of syndication.This thesis takes the syndication strategy system as the research object,analysis the influence factors that affect the efficient operation of the syndication decision system in the process of syndication.Using the principal-agent theory,evolutionary game theory to build the evolutionary game model of syndication strategy agent,two dimensions of syndication strategy selection before the syndication and opportunism prevention during the syndication has been studied and the simulation experiment design of the syndication decision system is realized on the Netlogo simulation platform based on the complex adaptive system theory.The specific research contents are as follows:1.Study the theoretical knowledge and research process related to the syndication decision,including the basic theory of venture capital,the basic theory of syndication,the domestic and foreign research of syndication,syndication strategy choice and the opportunism problem;2.This thesis defines stakeholder and its game strategy in the process of syndication decision.Based on evolutionary game theory,the evolutionary game model of syndication decision agents is constructed.Then,combined with the complex adaptive system theory,the simulation design of syndication decision system is implemented under the Netlogo simulation platform;3.In view of the syndication decision choice between venture capital institutions which have different power,building asymmetric strength evolutionary game model between venture investment institutions.During each strategy game,they see benefit maximization as principle,then to solve the model and analysis the stability,and the equilibrium state and evolution trend of the game agent can obtain.Finally,the simulation experiments of the complex adaptive system for the venture capital institutions are realized under the Netlogo simulation platform;4.For the opportunistic behavior of the following venture capital institutions,building an evolutionary game model between the leading and the following venture capital institutions,and solve the model and analyze the stability,and the equilibrium state and evolution trend of the game agent can obtain.Under the Netlogo simulation platform,the simulation experiments of the complex adaptive system for the leading and the following investment decision are realized.This study is a useful exploration for venture capital institutions to use syndication strategy,which provides a theoretical reference for syndication decision of venture capital institutions.