The Research On Risk Zonation Of Frozen Disasters In Hunan Base On Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process

Extreme climate events of sleeting and freezing with low temperature is the one of top three the most serious disaster in much of China.Hunan province is located in the southeast of China,near by the middle part of Yangtze River,and the central part of the three disaster zones.In 2008,an rare freezing disaster occurred in southern China,causing serious damage to electricity,agriculture,forestry,transportation and people’s livelihood in Hunan province.The affected population in hunan reached 18.71 million and 5 people were dead.Direct economic loss is 6.5billion yuan.At the second United Nations Global Conference,the strategy on disaster reduction is to identity,evaluate,monitor and early warning the risk of natural disaster as the five priorities in the next 10 years,including frozen disaster.The risk distinguish of T disasters can play a guiding role in disaster prevention work,reduce the economic loss caused by the freezing disaster,and can be related to production safety and engineering safety at the same time.Public security and social sustainable and stable development are the major needs of national economy and people’s livelihood,and a important guarantee for the construction of a harmonious society.According to the common types if frozen disasters in hunan province,classify the grades of frozen disaster,study the important factors of all kinds of frozen disasters,and combined with the nature,geography and economic of hunan province,drawing a hunan frozen disaster risk zoning map.Based on the meteorological data,social and economic data and geographic information of hunan province,the factor that affect the frozen disasters in hunan province are simplified to four aspect:dangerous grade of led a disaster,environment sensitivity,vulnerability of the disaster bearing body and the ability of surviving from disaster.Two connecting evaluation factors are selected,and each influence factor and evaluation index are given weight by the improved analytic hierarchy process.A comprehensive assessment model for the risk regionalization of the frozen disasters in hunan province was established to evaluation index to make risk zoning map,according to this map,the following conclusions are shown:the east of central hunan,and the east of north hunan in hengyang city,xiangtan city,changsha city and yueyang city are very high risk areas:one part of yiyang city,which is in the central of hunan,also loudi and shaoyang city are in high risk,yongzhou in southern hunan is in the middle risk area,zhuzhou city in the east and west of hunan areas,huaihua city and xiangxi are in the low risk area,changde city and zhangjiajie city are in very low risk areas.