Research Of The Influence Of Crude Oil Price Fluctuation On Stock Market Based On Complex Network Theory

Crude oil has always been an important raw material in production and life.The fluctuation of crude oil prices will have an impact on the economy.As a barometer and barometer of the economy,if the stock market is effective,the impact of oil price changes on the economy will be quickly and directly reflected in the stock market.The study about the time series of crude oil price and stock price fluctuation is a complex and difficult problem.Based on complex network theory,it is clear and convenient to get the evolution characteristics and rules of time series and analyze the effect of crude oil price fluctuations on Chinese industry blocks stock and Global industry stock by modeling and analyzing the network structure characteristics.The co-movement trend of crude oil price and stock prices is divided into different fluctuation patterns with the coarse-graining method.Based on information entropy theory,we reconstruct phase space of original time series.It is found that there exists the time lag effect of crude oil price fluctuation on global stock market and Chinese stock market.Coupling degree is used to measure the influence degree of crude oil price fluctuation on stock price fluctuation.Then,the bivariate time series network model is established for the four industry stock,namely,the petrochemical block and the electric equipment and new energy block,Global energy and Global industry,in five different periods.By joint analysis of the network-oriented metrics,such as node strength,degree distribution,shortest path distance,intermediary centrality and clustering coefficient,the key modes and underlying evolutionary mechanisms were identified.The results show that the both networks have different fluctuations characteristics in different periods.Their co-movement patterns are clustered in some key modes and conversion intermediaries.The study not only reveals the lag effect of the fluctuations of crude oil price on Chinese industry block stock and Global industry stock,but also finds that the Global industry stock is more sensitive to the fluctuations of crude oil price than Chinese industry plate stock.It is found that the key nodes,the different conversion cycle and the intermediate mode of the network are in the different periods of crude oil price fluctuations,which indicates that the government or investment decision-makers should adopt different energy policies to stabilize the market fluctuations in different periods and provides help for analyzing the market fluctuations.This paper provides a new method and perspective to study the unidirectional influence between multivariable or complex time series.The interaction between financial markets can be regarded as the transfer and response of market information.It effectively simplifies complex time series and reveals some characteristics that econometric methods can not show.