Research On The Development Mode And Path Of County Green&Circular Mining Based On System Dynamics

The development of the mining industry in the new period requires the resource,population,economy,ecology and other factors develop in a coordinated atmosphere,thus would realize the sustainable development strategy of the country and the region in the way of developing green & circular economy.As the foundation of industrial,Mineral resources has played a great promoting role in the period of the rapid economic development strategy of our country.However,emerged in this process,such as resource depletion,environmental pollution and Social humanities problems ect,has become a serious restriction of economic.Based on the contradiction of mining economic development with factors,such as environment,Social humanities ect,committed to drive the mining economic growth,our country has put forward new requirements from perspectives of innovation,coordination,green,opening and sharing.Based on the characteristics of the influence factors of mining economic development,this paper considers the development of the green & circular of mining industry as a systematic for studying.Firstly,analyzes the research status and related theories of the development of green & circular mining development.Secondly,based on the analysis of field data,and the green & circular mining development scope,the system boundary is designed.Under the condition of fully understood the association of the internal factors of the green & circular mining development,connects with referring of the "ecological economic man" hypothesis,the system is divided into five subsystems,including resources,economy,environment,population,science and technology,Then designs causal relationship diagrams and flow diagrams of parameters in each subsystem with the principle and method of system dynamics in the VensimPLE.further,integrating flow chart of every subsystem into a big system flow chart to established a green & circular development of County mining industry system dynamics model.Taking the Lueyang County as an example,which located in the Han River and the Jialing River origin area,have abundant resource of mineral,animal and plant,and belongs to the important area of mineral resources origin,the water conservation of south-north water diversion project and is in the scope of the important ecological diversity protected of China.This study combines field research and yearbook,selects the history data of 2008 ~ 2015 years of Lueyang county for structural,historical,intuition and sensitivity test,After the model's adjusting and optimizing,the relative error between simulated values and actual values range in-6.97%~+7.50%,and the sensitivity is Between 7.39%-+8.01%,both less than 10%,the model is verified to be correct,applicable and effective.Finally,Aiming at solving the problems of County mining development,four typical development paths are designed after the model's parameters optimization.Paths including the current development path I,the rapid development path II,the green development path III and coordinated development/green & circular path IV.Then simulates and analyses it's mining development of 2008~2015 years,with some suggestions proposed.The simulation results shows that: under the current development path I,mineral resources consumed fast,resources reserves gap is large at the later stage,the quality of ecological environment is poor,the harmony degree of mining community is low,and the speed of economic development is slow,so it is difficult to realize the green and cycle development of county economy.Considering the resource guarantee ability,economic development,environmental responsibility,comfortable environment,the development of science and technology and other factors,According the comparison and analysis of the 4 typical path simulation results,we believe that the coordinated development/green & circular path is the optimal path to achieve green mining cycle development of county,we found that,under the condition of the coordinated development/green & circular path IV,compared to the current path,by 2035 year,the reserves increased 44867 thousand tons by 7.67%,the actual mining resources decreased by 10.38%,the mining GDP and mining green GDP rise nearly 6%,the GDPrise by 18.74%,environmental pollution degree relatively decreased by 23.19%,and the Harmony degree of mining area increased by 38.33%,The displacement of solid waste has fallen by 34.49%,the level of science and technology increase by 10.61%,the population remained a stable level.Finally based on the policy parameters of the coordinated development/green & circular path IV,suggestions have made to provide references for realizing green & circular mining development as soon as possible.