Study On The Relationship Between Meteorological Factors And Hand,Foot And Mouth Disease In Jianghan Plain

Objective:The Hand,Foot and Mouth Disease(HFMD)is the major infectious disease in children in China.The meteorological factors have been reported to have effect on the epidemic of HFMD,but the conclusion is not consistent.That suggest the impact is regional different.The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between the meteorological factors and the risk of Hand,Foot and Mouth Disease(HFMD)in Tianmen,Honghu,and Jianli,three cities in Jianghan Plain.The findings will provide scientific evidence in the HFMD prevention and control in Jianghan plain.Methods:The daily HFMD report cases in Tianmen,Honghu,and Jianli from January1,2010 to December 31,2015 were extracted from Case Report System in Hubei Province.The daily meteorological data in the same period were requested from National Meteorological Data Center.The generalized additive model based on poisson distribution was used to explore the lag effect and the threshold effect of meteorological factors on the risk of HFMD.The further stratified analyses by age,gender and school-status groups.Results:1.The total report cases of HFMD in Tianmen,Honghu,and Jianli was 3898,2327 and 3424,respectively.The peaks of the daily report cases of HFMD in Tianmen was from April to July,while from March to June in Honghu and Jianli.There were more HFMD cases in boys,1-2-year-old children,and scattered children.2.The lag effect of meteorological factors on the risk of HFMD was observed.The daily average temperature(lag6-9),temperature difference in neighbouring days(lag0-1),average relative humidity(lag5-6 and lag8),and average wind speed(lag5)were the risk factors.And the daily average temperature(lag0-3)was the protection factor.The effects of daily average temperature(lag2),daily average temperature(Lag8),temperature difference in neighboring days(lag1),average relative humidity(lag6),and average wind speed(lag 5)were 0.970(95%CI:0.959-0.982;I~2=56.0%),1.019(95%CI:1.003-1.035;I~2=73.2%),1.022(95%CI:1.010-1.034;I~2=0.0%),1.004(95%CI:1.002-1.007;I~2=0.0%)and 1.042(95%CI:1.008-1.078;I~2=25.3%),respectively.3.The threshold effect of meteorological factors on the risk of HFMD was observed.The threshold of daily average temperature,daily temperature difference,temperature difference in neighboring days,average relative humidity,and average wind speed was 20.5-27.4℃,8.3-9.9℃,-2.2-2.7℃,80.0-94.0%,and 2.1-2.2m/s,respectively.4.The effects of meteorological factors on the risk of HFMD were different among different genders,age group and school-status groups.5.The effects of meteorological factors on the risk of HFMD were different among different regions.The daily average temperature,daily temperature difference,temperature difference in neighboring days,average relative humidity,and average wind speed had an influence on the risk of HFMD in Tianmen.The daily average temperature,daily temperature difference,average relative humidity,and average wind speed had an influence on the risk of HFMD in Honghu.The daily mean temperature,alternate day temperature difference,and average relative humidity had an influence on the risk of HFMD in Jianli.Conclusions:The lag effect and threshold effect of meteorological factors on the risk of HFMD were observed.The prevention and control for HFMD should be strengthened in higher temperature,higher humidity,greater wind speed,and less daily temperature.The regional difference of the impact of meteorological factors on HFMD risk should be considered in local HFMD control strategy.