Land Use Simulation In Dengkou County Based On GIS And Emergy Analysis

Land resources are the most basic resources for human survival and development.Human’s various types of production activities are inseparable from the use of land resources.In the ecologically fragile arid and desert areas,Land resources are often subjected to many ecological and environmental pressures due to economic development.The Dengkou County is a typical semi-arid area and desert oasis.The land resources available for human use is very limited and the local ecological environment that is vulnerable to desertification also makes land resources more vulnerable.Besides,the local land ecological economic system was input into a large number of industrial products such as fertilizers,pesticides,herbicides and petroleum to meet the needs of rapidly growing population and human consumption,which makes a large number of problems that affect the sustainability of land resources,such as desertification of land,salinization of land,destruction of surface soil,and land pollution.Therefore,it takes the Dengkou County as a research area to study the sustainability of land resources has extremely important practical significance.This article has study on the sustainable utilization of land resources in the Dnegkou county based on the theory of emergy analysis combined with local land use and socio-economic statistics from 1998 to 2015.The results show that the sustainability of land resources has continued to decline.Based on the above,the semi-variable function and Hormonal regulation mechanism were used to improve the CA-Markov model and build the SHCM model.After accuracy verification,the model is used to simulate land use changes and sustainability in the next 100 years under the two different development models:efficiency-leading and ecological-leading.The results of this study show:(1)During the period from 1998 to 2015,the main form of land use in Dengkou County was the transformation and utilization of bare land.The main land type change was the increase of cultivated land and the conversion of bare land to forest grassland,which was a typical manifestation of ecological restoration in the study area.From the analysis of emergy data during the study period,the change in land use is also confirmed in terms of sustainable use.At the same time,the emergy analysis also draws some conclusions:In the land ecological economic system of Dengkou County,the construction land system has the greatest impact on the total energy value of the land,but the construction land system itself is in a serious "consumption-type" system with low sustainability.,face greater environmental pressure.During the period from 1998 to 2015,the total emergy output of the land ecological economic system of Dengkou County continued to increase.At the same time,the land environmental load index(ELR)continued to increase,and the land sustainable use index(ESI)continued to decline.This shows that the environmental pressures in the study area are relatively poor during this period,and the sustainability of future development is not optimistic,and urgent measures are needed to curb it.(2)Analysis of the simulation results under the efficiency-led model and the ecological-dominant model shows that under the efficiency-led model,the economic growth is rapid,and the emergy output efficiency and quantity increase significantly.However,the sustainability of land resources has been greatly affected.Under the ecologically-dominated model,the economic development will stagnate,and the sustainable development of land resources will be effectively maintained.(3)Dengkou County is located in the ecotone of desert and oasis,and its geographical position is of great significance for the prevention of desertification and ecological protection.By setting up different development models for the two types of land ecological and economic systems,the prediction of the study area for a period of one hundred years has not been satisfactory.Simple industrial expansion will lead to a sharp deterioration of the environment.To maintain the sustainability of the ecological and economic system of the land in Qingkou County,economic development must be achieved through industrial upgrading and technological innovation.The relationship between ecological protection and economic development should be selected and balanced.