Research On The Meteorological Satellite Application Benefits To Typhoon Forecast Based On PSM-DID

The development and application of meteorological satellites have produced tremendous benefits in many areas of the national economy.Evaluation the meteorological satellite applications benefits scientifically can not only deepen the understanding of satellite technology applications and development trends in various industries,but also form an important basis for meteorological sa tellite development strategies.However,due to the complex composition of the meteorological satellite system and its wide range of benefits,there are problems such as the time lag,the subjective nature,and the inseparability between the meteorological satellite applications benefits and government services.This paper introduces the dual Difference in Difference and Propensity Score Matching(PSM-DID)method which widely used in policy benefits evaluation to establish an application benefit evaluation model of meteorological satellites for typhoon forecasting,and tries to solve the "counter-factual" design problems that have not been well solved in previous research.Firstly,this paper defines the connotation of the application of meteorological satellites,and divides the total benefits of meteorological satellite applications into three parts: primary benefit,secondary benefit,and third benefit.It also introduces the meteorological satellite application benefits characteristics and the evaluation index system.Combining the Public Goods Theory,Input-output Theory and Natural Disaster Risk Management Theory,this paper analyzes the application process and the mechanism of the typhoon forecast by meteorological satellites.Considering the particularity of meteorological satellites operation and the basic assumptions of the PSM-DID method,the direct economic losses caused by typhoon disasters were selected as evaluation indicators.The use of FY-3 Meteorological Satellites in 2008 is chosen as an intervention variable,Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Fujian and Guangdong provinces is chosen as intervention groups because of its advanced economy and frequency affection of typhoon,with Hong Kong as the control group.Then,this paper provides an empirical analysis of the evaluation model by using of the panel data in 1999-2016,which includes landing typhoon intensity,economic development levels and government meteorological inputs in Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Fujian,Guangdong provinces and Hong Kong.The mixed effects of the intervention group and the control group were tested,and stepwise regression analysis is performed on the established models using OLS,DID,and PSM-DID methods.According to empirical results,OLS estimation,DID estimation,and PSM-DID estimation all show that the use of FY-3 Meteorological Satellites has a negative relationship with direct economic losses caused by typhoons,and the most significant PSM-DID estimation result shows that FY-3 Meteorological Satellites application has reduced direct economic losses caused by typhoon disaster by 43.9 billion yuan.The robustness test of the model showed that the number of people affected was reduced by 1.6 million and the affected farmland was reduced by 7.5 million hectares after the use of FY-3 Meteorological Satellites.Finally,a development model for furthering the total benefits of meteorological satellites is proposed,that is,taking the government as the leading factor,giving full play to the market vitality and considering the public’s demand for the application of meteorological satellites.