Study On Seismic Reliability Of Urban Road Network And Route Decision Of Post-earthquake Transportation

Quantitatively analyzing the seismic reliability of urban road network is of great significance for improving network earthquake resistance and guiding the decision-making for post-earthquake rescue and recovery activities.This dissertation innovatively adopts Bayesian networking in road network reliability assessment and performs decision optimization to acquire the optimal transportation route for post-disaster rescue work within the framework of multi-attributes decision theory.The dissertation mainly presents a methodology integrating Bayesian network and decision theory in road network reliability assessment and decision-making optimization.Road network can be decomposed into road and bridge units,and the seismic performance of the entire network is the ensemble of single units' performances.In the dissertation,unit and network performance is evaluated by the probability of staying connected after earthquake.For single road and bridge units,their seismic performances are quantified using empirical equation based on their characteristics.Then,Bayesian network is introduced to model the road network by considering morphological characteristics of the hybrid combination of road and bridge units.Facilitated by Bayesian network,the reliability of road network can be estimated by the reliabilities of single units.Within the framework of multi attributes decision making theory,using the linear combination of road network reliability,transportation time and cost as optimization objective,preferable post-disaster rescue transportation route can be acquired.Besides,the outcome of this methodology can inform the priorities of retrofit and recovery work.At last,the dissertation illustrates the methodology by a case study on the road network in Sucheng district of Suqian city.