Research On The Forecast Of Emergency Materials Demand For Typhoon Disaster Based On Case-based Reasoning

Typhoon disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world.Typhoon disasters occur frequently in China.When typhoon lands on the coast of China,it will cause great damage to the area it passes by,causing casualties,house collapse,crop extinction and a large number of property losses.Therefore,it is very important for typhoon disaster relief work.Emergency materials are the basis of disaster relief.In the shortest time,it can reduce the loss caused by the disaster to a certain extent by clarifying the demand of emergency materials in the disaster area and making relevant disaster relief plans.After typhoon landing,with the passage of time,the disaster results are expanding,so disaster relief has a strong timeliness.Therefore,it is very necessary to study the rapid prediction method of emergency materials demand for typhoon disaster,to quickly and effectively organize and prepare emergency materials resources,to improve the response speed and the efficiency of disaster relief.Based on the case-based reasoning technology,a fast forecasting method of emergency materials demand for Typhoon Disaster Based on similar cases is designed in this paper.By predicting the disaster results of the current target cases,and then calculating the emergency materials demand for different disaster results according to the standards of the emergency materials demand of the corresponding disaster results,it effectively solves the problem of the difficulty and poor timeliness of the emergency materials demand prediction for typhoon disaster caused by incomplete data and complex model construction.This paper studies the following aspects:(1)The selection and calculation method of typhoon disaster characteristic attribute,the distribution method of disaster characteristic attribute weight,the adjustment method of similar case solution and the calculation method of emergency material demand based on the result of case adjustment are studied.Based on the further analysis of the disaster data,from the four dimensions of disaster level,disaster nature,disaster duration and the region where the disaster is located,the characteristic attributes of typhoon disaster are selected.The area affected by typhoon is partitioned,and the value of each characteristic attribute is calculated according to the population and disaster resistance capacity of each block;The dynamic classification of cases under condition attribute and decision attribute is realized by fuzzy theory,and the significance test of each classification result is carried out by F statistics,so as to select the optimal classification.The importance of each condition attribute to decision attribute is calculated by rough set theory,and then the weight distribution of each condition attribute,namely disaster characteristic attribute,is obtained;Based on the best similar cases,the calculation rules of case adjustment coefficient are constructed to realize the adjustment of the best similar case solution;based on the results of case adjustment,the demand of relevant emergency materials is calculated to achieve the rapid prediction of the demand for typhoon emergency materials in the target case.(2)An example is applied to verify the validity of the model method.Taking typhoon "MUJIGAE" No.22 in 2015 as the target case,collect relevant data and establish a typhoon disaster case base.Based on the method of attribute weight distribution of typhoon disaster characteristics in this paper,the similar cases of target cases are searched,the solutions based on similar cases are adjusted,the emergency material demand corresponding to the disaster is calculated and predicted,and the accuracy of the prediction of the disaster results is verified.The results show that the forecasting method based on case-based reasoning proposed in this paper has a good accuracy and can be used for the rapid prediction of emergency materials demand of typhoon disaster in the early stage of disaster.