Research On Model And Method Of Demand Prediction And Allocation For Emergency Relief Supplies After Earthquake Disaster

Earthquake disaster is one of the most serious natural disasters in the world. Once an earthquake occurs, it often brings great loss to people's life and property. After an earthquake disaster, emergency rescue work will be activated immediately, in order to prevent further expand of earthquake disaster and reduce earthquake disaster loss in the affected area. As an important guarantee of earthquake emergency rescue work, earthquake disaster emergency supplies have important influence on the efficiency and the success of the emergency rescue work. Therefore, facing with frequent earthquake disasters, the establishment of scientific and effective emergency supplies management decision-making model is of great significance to improve the response ability of earthquake disaster emergency rescue and to reduce loss and casualties.In recent years, scholars have put forward many demand prediction and allocation models for emergency supplies and have improved the principle and algorithm of the existing models based on the characteristics of the earthquake disaster making it more adaptable to the specific environment after earthquake disasters. At present, the models and the methodological and theoretical system of demand prediction and allocation for emergency supplies after earthquake disaster have been relatively mature, but there are still some problems from the point of practical application. For example, each part of demand prediction and allocation for emergency supplies interacts with each other and is closely linked, forming an organic system. Although the existing research on demand predictiom and allocating models for emergency supplies become more wide spread, all of them focus on one or a few aspects, resulting in the situation that the research content is relatively scattered and there is less overal and systematic research on demand prediction and allocation for emergency supplies. Besides, earthquake disaster always has great influence and has a wide range of spatial distribution and the disaster degree is nonuniform in spatial distribution. The existing researches seldom consider the spatial nonuniform distribution of disaster degree, resulting in a problem that the decision-making models could not reflect the real situation of the affected areas which will produce unreasonable results. What's more, there are many uncertainties existing after earthquake disaster, including information incompleteness, randomness and fuzziness. Further research is still needed to establish reasonable models aiming at these uncertainties.Aiming at the problem that there are not enough consideration on the systematicness, spatial nonuniformity and uncertainties in recent research on demand prediciton and allocation for emergency supplies afer earthquake, systems engineering approach being taken to make comprehensive analysis and establish systemic model in each part and link, scientific and effective demand prediction and allocating model and method for emergency supplies after earthquake disaster are put forward to fully reflect the spatial nonuniformity and uncertainty in affected areas, based on the accurate grasp of basic earthquake disaster related knowledge on space information technology, uncertainty theory and emergency supplies management decision-making. The application results show that the proposed method can improve decision effect of demand prediction and allocation model for emergency supplies after earthquake disaster, and make a good supplement of earthquake disaster thematic application research of systems engineering method, spatial information technology and uncertainty theory, having perfect theoretical innovation and integrated innovation value.The main research contents and achievements are as follows:(1)The demand prediction model and method for emergency supplies after earthquake disaster based on spatial case-based reasoning:According to the characteristic of information incompleteness after earthquake disaster, case-based reasoning is put forward to predict demand situation of emergency supplies. Meanwhile, because of spatial nonuniform distribution characteristics of earthquake damage to underlying surface, spatial information is introduced into traditional case-based reasoning, and case representation and case retrieval method are redesigned to be better suitable for spatial information processing, realizing seamless integration of spatial information and case-based reasoning and solving the problem that information incompleteness in affected area and spatial nonuniformity of damage degree of earthquake disaster are not considered enough in the current demand prediction for emergency supplies. It would be a strong support for establishment of demand prediction and allocation model for emergency supplies.(2)The distribution center location model and method for emergency supplies after earthquake disaster considering stochastic road damage:Aiming at the characteristic that road damage is spatial nonuniform along with disaster degree and is stochastic, the distribution center location model for emergency supplies after earthquake disaster considering stochastic road damage based on improved P-median model is proposed, taking the advantages of spatial information technology in spatial representation of disaster degree, basic geographic data processing and road network data analysis and management, establishing a relationship between earthquake instensity degree and road damage degree based on intensity map and historical statistic data. The model solves the problem that the different damage degree and stochastic damage of road are not sufficiently considered in the models represented by the traditional deterministic P-median model, and provides more objective, comprehensive and complete location decisions.(3) The scheduling and distribution model and method for emergency supplies after earthquake disaster based on fuzzy goal programming:According to characteristic of multi-objective and fuzziness among different objectives in the decision-making process of scheduling and distribution for emergency supplies, the objective functions for emphasis, efficiency and fairness are established. Meanwhile, the scheduling and distribution model and method for emergency supplies after earthquake disaster based on fuzzy goal programming is proposed by designing fuzzy goal programming method to cope with the fuzziness among multiple objectives based on fuzzy set theory and goal programming method. The model solves the problem that the model is difficult to be established because of fuzziness, provides new idea of supplies distribution and vehicle route decision making and reflects the actual situation of supplies distribution in affected areas in a more real, sufficient and accurate manner.As a thematic application and extending study of spatial information technology in the field of earthquake disaster emergency, the combination of systems engineering method, spatial information technology, uncertainty theory and earthquake disaster emergency supplies management embodies multidispline application, providing new ideas for the improvement of demand prediction and allocation model for emergency supplies after earthquake disaster to make the results having more practical and reference value in the process of decision-making of emergency supplies management after earthquake.