Modeling And Stability Analysis Of Brucellosis

Brucellosis is currently recognized as one of the most severe zoonotic infectious diseases.It is caused by Brucella.The World Organisation for Animal Health?OIE?classifies it as a zoonotic B-type animal disease.In the field of mathematics,the dynamic model is an effective tool for analyzing the transmission mechanism of infectious diseases.The dynamics of infectious diseases can respond to the epidemic law of the disease's transmission mechanism,predict the development trend,analyze the influencing factors of the disease epidemic,and use numerical simulation.As a result,prevention and control measures were proposed.Although many researches have been done since the discovery of brucellosis,the transmission of brucellosis still exists in many parts of the country.In order to better prevent and control the spread of brucellosis,the following research has been done in this article:The first chapter mainly introduces the background,research significance,research status at home and abroad,and main research contents of brucellosis.The second chapter mainly introduces the basic theory of ordinary differential equations and the basic concepts of infectious disease dynamics.The third chapter based on the transmission characteristics of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia,a human-sheep coupled brucellosis kinetic model is established,the threshold of the model?basic regeneration number?is given,and the disease-free equilibrium point is global asymptotic stability in the case ofR₀?1,the endemic equilibrium point is global asymptotic stability in the case of R₀?1.Finally,numerical simulation was used to predict the epidemic trend of brucellosis,and the sensitivity analysis was performed on the parameters in the expression of the basic regeneration numberR₀.According to the analysis results,it is known that increasing the vaccination rate of humans will reduce the number of human diseases;And the vaccination rate of humans,the number of human infections was significantly reduced compared with the amount of vaccination alone.Therefore,simultaneous vaccination of sheep and humans can more effectively prevent and control the spread of brucellosis.According to the sensitivity analysis of medium parameters,increasing the culling rate of diseased sheep can better prevent the spread of brucellosis.The fourth chapter studies the influence of the flock's transport among different regions on the spread of brucellosis,and establishes a dynamic model that includes susceptible persons,latent persons,and quarantined persons after illness?the affected sheep do not participate in transportation?.It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable in the case ofR₀?1;and the endemic disease equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable in the case ofR₀?1 when the given sufficient conditions are met.In the numerical simulation part,the parameter values in the model are reasonably assumed,and the propagation situation caused by the transportation path is analyzed.According to the simulation results,it is known that in some cases the movement of the flock will not cause the spread of brucellosis,so in this case,the mutual movement of the sheep in the region can be carried out.However,if the volume of flocks transported between some areas is increased,the spread of brucellosis will also increase.Therefore,in this case,we should control the spread of brucellosis by reducing the amount of sheep transported in the corresponding area.