Research On The Effect Of Fiscal And Tax Policy Of Electric Passenger Car Based On Dynamic CGE Model

With the vigorous development of China’s economy and the improvement of people’s living standards,the use of automobiles,especially passenger cars,is becoming more and more widespread,and the problems such as accelerated energy consumption,intensified environmental pollution,and normalization of traffic congestion are becoming more and more serious.For this,the Chinese government actively formulates relevant standards,regulations and fiscal and taxation policies,accelerates the high-quality development of the automobile industry,and replaces traditional fuel vehicles with new energy vehicles,thereby promoting energy conservation and emission reduction and promoting environmental pollution control.Since 2013,Chinese government has successively introduced the promotion policies for electric passenger vehicles,including the subsidies for car purchases for electric passenger cars and the exemption of electric passenger car purchase tax.For the subsidy policy,the government implements the management of the slope retreat year by year according to a certain proportion,and the aim is to gradually get rid of the dependence of the new energy auto industry on policies and improve the technology and services of the products,so that the new energy auto industry will gain an advantage in the market competition.Therefore,based on this policy background,we build a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE)model for the electric passenger car taxation policy based on the 2012 social accounting matrix(SAM table),and analyzes the impact of the electric passenger car tax exemption,subsidy policy on electric passenger and slope retreat policy on energy,environment and economy.The core issues of the thesis research mainly include two aspects: First,whether the implementation of the electric passenger car tax exemption,subsidy policy on electric passenger and slope retreat policy can be achieved the direct goal of the policy,that is,whether the promotion requirements of electric passenger vehicles and the expected effects of energy saving and emission reduction can be realized;The implementation of the policy is likely to affect the “nerve” of other economies,so the study is also useful to examine whether the policy mix meets the requirements for high quality economic development.In addition,through the model simulation of economic changes over multiple periods,it is possible to compare the economic effects of different policy combinations,so as to more accurately evaluate the optimal policy mix,and provide reference for the government to introduce relevant incentive policies for electric passenger vehicles.The research process of the thesis mainly includes the following steps: Firstly,by reviewing and sorting out the development status and related policies and measures of a large number of new energy vehicles,the fiscal and taxation policies of electric passenger vehicles are taken as the research object.Secondly,by reviewing and summarizing the experience and achievements of domestic and foreign scholars in compiling SAM tables and constructing the CGE model for studying fiscal and tax policies,this model is constructed as a dynamic CGE model for fiscal and tax policies for electric passenger cars.The model is based on neoclassical macroeconomic assumptions and general equilibrium theory,the SAM table is divided into 45 accounts as the data basis of the model(18 production activity accounts,18 commodity accounts,2 factor accounts,4 subjects institutional account,2 electric passenger car tax account and 1 investment savings account),and each account is then designed into a production module,a host mechanism module,a trade module,a balanced closed module,a policy module,etc.Using the simultaneous mathematical equation to describe each economic behavior in the module and utilizing the growth of two exogenous variables,capital and labor,to achieve a model transition from static to dynamic;furthermore,according to the established micro-SAM table in 2012 and the previous research results,the various parameters in the model are calibrated,and the model is solved by GAMS software,and its accuracy,reliability and stability are tested.Finally,the baseline scenario S0(non-subsidy,policy of purchase tax),S1(non-subsidy,non-purchase tax policy),S2(subsidized but subsidies are not declining year by year,policy of purchase tax),S3(There are subsidies but subsidies do not go down year by year,no purchase tax policy),S4(subsidized and subsidies are declining year by year,there is a policy of purchase tax)and S5(subsidized and subsidies are declining year by year,no purchase tax policy)are simulated six policy scenarios,and analyzed changes in household consumption and welfare caused by the implementation of the six policy combinations,changes in total demand and total output of related industries,changes in energy production and consumption structure,changes in carbon dioxide emissions and proportions,changes in import and export,changes in real GDP.Then compare various simulation results and then evaluate different policy combinations,and finally select the optimal policy combination and propose policy recommendations.Through empirical simulation,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)The five policy combinations(excluding the baseline situation and the reference scenario are reference)are all conducive to promoting the economic behavior of residents to purchase electric passenger vehicles,which is conducive to improving residents’ welfare and improving energy consumption,reducing the carbon dioxide emissions of the road transportation industry and the carbon emission ratio of the transportation industry,and reducing the dependence on China’s imports of petroleum and refined petroleum.However,they will cause economic losses to a certain extent and hinder the structural optimization and adjustment of the three industries;(2)Among the five policy combinations,the policy effect of the exemption tax policy is stronger than that of the subsidy policy,and the subsidy(no downslope)and non-purchase policies are implemented to improve the welfare of residents and reduce emissions.It is the most outstanding,but at the same time it also suppresses the macroeconomic development such as GDP to the greatest extent,and the policy effects of implementing subsidy(subsidy retreat)and purchase tax have the weakest effect;(3)As a result of the comprehensive analysis of the simulation,various policy combinations have basically reached the policy goal of promoting the promotion of electric passenger cars and energy conservation and emission reduction.The degree is in line with the requirements of high-quality development.Relatively speaking,this paper considers that the policy portfolio with subsidies(subsidies are declining)and purchase tax is the most ideal,because the policy combination is to achieve emission reduction,improve residents’ welfare,and adjust and optimize energy.The consumption and output structure and the reduction of oil import dependence can simultaneously control the macroeconomic downturn,minimize the trade surplus,and minimize the degradation of the three major industrial structures.At the same time,this policy combination can highlight its policy of retreating policy.The continuous weakening effect of the income loss rate of residents and enterprises,and the use of the policy of retreating to suppress the continuous expansion of the trade surplus,while seeking local interests,can also take the overall situation and achieve a comprehensive balance.In summary,the following three policy inspirations are obtained:(1)The policy combination and implementation process must be considered from a global perspective,and the impact of individual economic indicators cannot be considered in isolation,and it is forbidden to consider this;(2)Ensure that the proportion of the slope reduction is basically the same as the average cost of the current electric passenger vehicle,which is beneficial to the survival of the fittest for electric passenger vehicle enterprises;(3)To promote the development of electric passenger vehicles,clean power generation models must be considered to improve the development quality of related industries.The possible innovations of this paper have the following two points:(1)Multi-angle analysis of the effects of incentives for electric passenger vehicles from the five policy scenarios of single policy and portfolio policy,and comparative research;(2)Comprehensively consider the impact and spillover effects of fiscal and taxation policies of electric passenger cars and the policy decline,instead of just considering the impact of "whether or not to implement a subsidy policy",making the research more in-depth.