Analysis Of Tertiary Industry In Guangxi Based On Grey Forecast Model And Spatial Econometric Model

2020 is the decisive year of building a well-off society in an all-round way,the development of the tertiary industry plays an important role in the construction of a well-off society.Therefore,the importance of the tertiary industry determines the necessity of studying the tertiary industry After look up literatures,it is found that the literature on the tertiary industry in Guangxi is relatively few,and the year is relatively longIn order to explore the development of the tertiary industry in Guangxi,to understand the spatial overflow of the development of the tertiary industry in Guangxi,and to find out the factors what affecting the development of the tertiary industry in Guangxi,this paper is based on time series data,cross-sectional data and panel data,using basic statistical analysis methods,and based on the gray theory model and spartial econometric model of tertiary industry in Guangxi is analyzed.As results as follows:firstly,the tertiary industry in Guangxi growth rapidly,there is no convergence at present,it is vital to promote the comprehensive construction well-of society in the process,but the tertiary industry development in Guangxi is quite backward,and its gap is widening compared with tertiary industry of national and south of China average level.Secondly,according to the results of moran index,it is found that there is anegative spatial correlation effect in the value-added of tertiary industry in Guangxi,that is the phenomenon that the tertiary industry develops slowly and the development level of surrounding cities is high,or the phenom enon that the development level of surrounding cirties is high and the development level of surrounding cities is low.Thirdly,the paper establishes the spatial lag model based on the cross-section data of 2017 firstly,and found that the number of employment in the tertiary industry,per capita GDP and other factors affect the developrment of the tertiary industry in Guangxi.Secondly,select the panel data from 2008 to 2018,conduct the stationary test,the gener al fixed-effect model of panel data was established and compared with the SLM model with fixed effect.It was found that the relatively good estimation results of the model were time-point fixed effect model.The SLM model with spatial effect could be used for analysis accurately.Then the fixed-effect spatial durbin model is established and combined with the direct effect,indirect effect and total effect,it is found that the per capita GDP,per capita education expenditure,per capita medical expenditure,per capita social security expenditure and automobile ownership have an impact on the development of the tertiary industry.According to the results,combined with economic policy,the following countermeasures are put forward:firstly,the correct positioning of Guangxi's tertiary industry,and make the determination to develop the tertiary industry actively;secondly,we should strengthen the construction of the cluster area of modern service industry and promote coordinated development.;thirdly,we should improve infrastructure construction;fourthly,we will continue to give better play to the local financial support for the tertiary industry;fifthly,establish and improve the incentive mechanism for talents to attract talents in the tertiary industry,and sixthly,improve the financial system to support the development of tertiary industry.