Spatial Econometrics Of The Economic Growth Effect Of The Evolution Of The Marine Industry Structure In China's Coastal Areas

Economic and spatial spillovers caused by regional industrial structure changes are one of the hotspots and difficulties in human geography research.China is a country with both land and sea.Changes in the marine industry structure along the coast have triggered new momentum for regional economic growth.This paper studies the inter-continental and inter-provincial changes in the marine industry in China's coastal areas from 1997 to 2017,and spatially measures the optimization of marine industrial structure,local economic growth,and spillover effects of neighboring areas caused by changes in the marine industrial structure in coastal areas.This will enrich human geography's local economic growth theory and empirical methodologies regarding changes in the marine industrial structure,and provide a scientific reference for regional marine industrial structure optimization.The paper constructs regional marine industry structure change measurement index and a quantitative method system of the economic space growth effect of marine industry structure evolution,analyzes the types,rationality and situation of marine industry structure change in China's coastal areas,and preliminarily explains the three forms of economic growth induced by changes in the regional marine industrial structure by empirical measurement: the associative effect of marine economic growth on the evolution of the marine industry,the contributing effect of local national economic growth,and the spillover effect of neighborhood economic growth.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)The study quantitatively analyzes the changes in the marine industrial structure in China's coastal deltas and provinces by using three measurement methods: coupling coordination model,industrial structure diversification coefficient,and industrial structure growth model.The study found that the evolution of the marine industry structure at the national,coastal delta,and provincial scales all showed high similarities;the competitiveness of the marine industry declined significantly,and marine tertiary industry,marine science and technology industry,and marine education industry had the strongest competitiveness;the structures of marine three industries and 11 types of marine industries were deepening;the large change in the "MD value" of the marine industry indicates that the level of development of the marine industry is low and the state of inter-industry incoordination is serious;the rationality of the marine industrial structure has gradually declined,and there are three types of regions the industrial structure in some regions is gradually becoming rational,some provinces have convert from rational to irrational,and individual provinces and cities have increasingly deformed marine industrial structures.(2)The paper constructs the forward correlation coefficient,backward correlation coefficient,influence coefficient,sensitivity coefficient,and comprehensive correlation coefficient of the marine industry to measure the correlation effect of marine economic growth in the evolution of the marine industry.The study found that the correlations between the marine economic growth and the marine industry evolution in China's coastal deltas and provinces have a high degree of similarity;during the study period,the forward correlation coefficients of the marine shipbuilding industry,marine chemical industry and marine environmental protection industry declined,and the forward correlation coefficients of the other 8 categories of marine industries rose;in provinces other than Hebei,the backward correlation coefficients of 5 categories of marine industries including marine fisheries,marine oil and gas industry,marine science and technology and marine education,marine environmental protection,marine administration and public service decreased.And the forward correlation coefficients of the remaining six categories of marine industries increased.The industries with an impact coefficient value and a comprehensive correlation coefficient value higher than the average level were mostly marine secondary industries and rarely involved in the marine tertiary industry;the industries whose sensitivity coefficient value is higher than the average level are the marine primary industry,most of the secondary industry,and a few tertiary industries;comprehensive analysis of the industry correlation coefficient shows the structural change of the marine industry has a significant positive correlation with the growth of the marine economy,of which the secondary marine industry has the largest promotion effect.(3)The paper constructs the regional contribution of the marine economy and the OLS regression model to measure the contribution of evolution of the marine industry to the local economic growth.The study found that in the course of the study period,the contribution of the marine industries to local economic growth of Tianjin,Shanghai,Fujian,Shandong,Guangdong and Hainan in the 11 coastal provinces of China was higher than the national level.The delta-scale analysis illustrated that the contribution of the marine industry to the local economic growth in the Pearl River Delta was the largest.The accomplish structure and increasingly reasonable is the common characteristics of the high contribution of local economic growth driven by changes in the marine industry;OLS model calculations have found that marine industries in Guangxi,Hebei,and Jiangsu have the highest role in promoting local economic growth at the provincial scale,while the promotion in the Bohai Bay is strongest at the delta scale;comprehensively speaking,the marine industry structure that has a strong role in promoting the local economy is characterized by the lowest proportion of fundamental production,the larger proportion of secondary and tertiary production,and the insignificant difference in proportion structure,which contributes more to local economic growth.A high marine industry,on the other hand,has a lower role in promoting local economic growth.(4)The Capello model is used to measure the spillover effects of the development of the marine industry on the economic growth of the neighborhood.The study found that the spillover effects of economic growth in the neighborhood of marine industrial structure evolution are "concentric circles" spreading,and the corresponding distances produce corresponding resistance coefficients.Interregional spillover intensity has interaction characteristics(spillover is equivalent to feedback)and has a "gradient spillover" phenomenon that is,large regional economic gap with the significant spillover effects;the growth spillover effect of the marine industry evolution at the provincial scale is dominated by the marine secondary and tertiary industries,and the spillover effect of the neighborhood growth of the marine industry evolution at the delta scale is dominated by the marine primary and secondary industries;marine industry structure is a three-two-one type marine industry structure ratio without structural loss in some regions where the spatial spillover effect of the neighborhood economic growth in the marine industry evolution is high.Measurement conclusions and policy implications of the economic growth effects of the changes in the marine industry structure in China's coastal areas.The comprehensive strength of the marine industry is good,but it is difficult to cover the general predicaments such as irrational marine industry structure,weak competitiveness,poor coordination,and lack of high-level industries.Actively guide the optimization of the industrial structure,in particular,the competitiveness of the marine industry should be enhanced,the industrial linkage of the evolution of the marine structure should be increased,and the spillover effect of local economic growth and neighborhood economic growth should be released.